Key investment points:
Introduction: the economic data from January to February exceeded expectations, and the financial committee held a meeting to stabilize confidence. China's economy is located in the transitional stage of reverse cycle regulation in stage 1 of the Pringle cycle and recovery in stage 2. It is stable first and then formed. Sanctions against Russia continued to fall, grasping the two clues of Russia Ukraine event catalysis and long-term domestic substitution.
The economic data from January to February exceeded expectations, and the financial committee held a meeting to stabilize confidence and break the perfect storm. (1) The economic data from January to February far exceeded expectations. The industrial added value is 7.9% under the three-year average caliber, and the former value is 5.8%; The 3-year average of social consumption is 4.3%, and the previous value is 3.1%; The three-year average cumulative growth rates of fixed investment, real estate and infrastructure construction were 4.6% / 2.3% / 6.3% respectively, an increase of 0.7/0.6/0.6 points respectively compared with the previous value, and the average growth rate of manufacturing industry was 4.4%, down one point. Regardless of the base, the strong items are mainly production and real estate investment. Due to the Spring Festival, the proportion of data from January to February in the whole year is lower than the average level, and it is unlikely that the data will continue to exceed expectations from the perspective of the whole year; (2) On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission held a special meeting chaired by Vice Premier Liu He. The meeting studied the five current issues of macroeconomic operation, real estate, zhonggai shares, platform economic governance and the stability of Hong Kong's financial market. It was clear that "actively introduce policies beneficial to the market and carefully introduce contractive policies". It is expected that the strength and sustainability of steady growth in the future are expected to continue to exceed expectations. Therefore, under the background of the current outbreak of the epidemic, the meeting of the financial committee emphasized "effectively invigorating the economy in the first quarter" and the micro data is still weak, the tone of subsequent steady growth is expected to continue. In the "golden stability breaks the perfect storm", we pointed out that with the implementation and effectiveness of China's steady growth policy, the economic momentum will gradually pick up. The end of China's economy is expected to be proved in the second quarter. Pringle clock turns to phase 2 recovery, equity assets dominate, stabilize first and then become, high dividend strategy is the shield, small cap growth, specialization and new attack.
The Fed is more hawkish in its outlook for raising interest rates. FOMC announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% - 0.5%, which is the first time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates since December 2018, and the rate increase is in line with market expectations. In its statement, the Fed stressed the uncertainty and additional inflationary pressure that may be brought about by recent geopolitical events, lowered its GDP growth forecast and significantly raised its inflation expectations. The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 1.9% at the end of this year, which also means that six interest rate increases of 25bp are still needed. And one vote Committee was more hawkish in this vote, believing that the interest rate should be increased by 50bp in March. In addition, the committee is expected to start the reduction of tables at its next meeting (may). As the market expectation management of the Federal Reserve was relatively sufficient, the overall performance of major asset prices was relatively stable, and US stocks continued to rise.
The range of net outflow in the north direction narrowed. Although Liangrong had a net outflow, its proportion in the market value of circulation continued to rise. The net outflow of funds from the north this week was - 16.7 billion yuan, narrower than - 36.3 billion yuan last week, but the absolute outflow level is still high; Although the net outflow of Liangrong exceeded 20 billion, the proportion of the balance in the circulating market value rose to 2.56%, returning to the level in November 2021. In the direction of the industry, the two capital subjects have no consensus and are optimistic about the industry; Among the top five industries with net outflow, the net outflow of power equipment from the north and the two financial sectors continued, and the net outflow of food and beverage from the North was - 7.7 billion.
Industry configuration: sanctions against Russia continue to be implemented, and grasp the two clues of Russia Ukraine event catalysis and long-term domestic substitution. a. Russia Ukraine event catalysis industry: 1) oil service and oil transportation; 2) Potash fertilizer; 3) Semiconductor material & power semiconductor; 4) Grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ; 5) Bank. b. Independent and controllable long-term track: 1) bulk oil and gas, minerals and grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ; 2) Semiconductor equipment; 3) Defense industry. c. Growth track of energy revolution: 1) wind power & photovoltaic; 2) New energy vehicles & parts; 3) Prefabricated buildings.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, the persistence of inflation exceeded expectations, the tightening of liquidity exceeded expectations, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
