Basic conclusion
At present, there is no qualitative change in the external and internal environment of the A-share market. 1) Overseas: if the situation in Russia and Ukraine leads to qualitative changes in the peripheral environment of the A-share market, the probability is reflected in the three aspects of “global stagflation, China EU relations and China US relations”. However, at present, there are signs of improvement in the progress of Russia Ukraine negotiations, and there is a certain correction in the prices of crude oil and other energy. In addition, China and the United States still maintain relatively common communication channels between China and the United States. Overseas uncertainties began to show marginal improvement. 2) China: Although the disclosure of credit data and economic data in February led to confusion in the market’s expectations of economic policies, the current trend of China’s wide currency and wide credit to help stabilize and recover the economy remains unchanged, and the profits of listed companies have gradually ushered in an upward turning point.
The experience of “policy bottom – market bottom” in the history of resumption of trading shows that the market bottom appears around February after the policy end in 2015 and 2018. Specifically: 1) in the stage of stock market crash in 2015, the national team entered the market on July 6, and the CSRC announced that the central bank would provide unlimited liquidity to securities companies. At that time, the market was basically at the end of the policy. Until mid August, the Shanghai Stock Index fluctuated at 34004000 points in more than a month. But the market really bottomed out at the end of August 26, and the low point of the index was 2850; 2) At the end of October 2018, the central government held a symposium on private enterprises. At that time, the market was at the end of the policy. Until mid December, the Shanghai Stock Index fluctuated at 25 Xinjiang Haoyuan Natural Gas Co.Ltd(002700) points for more than a month. However, the market really bottomed out. In early January 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 2441 points.
To judge the market bottom, we should avoid cutting corners. This market adjustment is essentially different from that in 2015 and 2018. Leveraged funds exploded in 2015, and there was a trade war outside and tight credit inside 2018. This market adjustment, especially the panic decline since the end of February, was more caused by extreme pessimism. In addition, at the end of 2015 and 2018 (early July 2015 and the end of October 2018), the fundamentals of listed companies are still in a downward trend, and there is no performance inflection point in the short term. Among them, the performance inflection point appeared in the half year after the end of the policy in 2015, and the performance inflection point appeared more than one year after the end of the policy in 2018. The profit rate of Chinese enterprises is probably at the bottom of the second quarter, while the current economy is at the bottom of the second quarter. In other words, in the context of the short-term bottom turning upward of the A-share profit cycle, whether the experience of the so-called market bottom lag policy of about two months is still applicable remains to be verified by the market.
It is preferred to underestimate the value under the defensive idea, but when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, A-Shares may usher in a small and medium-sized growth moment. At present, the core difference for new energy and other tracks lies in whether the performance is at an inflection point. In the track investment, the research and judgment of the inflection point of the growth curve is the most critical. For example, apple mobile phone shipments ushered in a downward inflection point in 2017, and the relevant sectors have obviously continued to adjust. Take new energy vehicles as an example. Since 2019, the continuous excess return of the sector has been accompanied by the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. The inflection point of the growth curve of the new energy sector is still difficult to see in the short term, and the medium and long-term logic is difficult to prove. The sector continues to adjust under the current negative capital feedback, and may usher in a deterministic recovery after the landing of performance uncertainty.
Industry configuration: the stabilization and recovery of the new energy sector, the layout of TMT hard technology on the left, pay attention to the short-term and fast opportunities of securities companies, and gradually pay attention to the poor business consumption expectations after the epidemic eased.
1) at present, there is no significant change in the fundamentals and policies of heavy positions of new energy and other institutions, which has stabilized and rebounded or is an event with high probability. According to the recently disclosed annual report forecast, companies in the sector have generally achieved high growth. Although some investors are worried that the market has too high expectations for the performance growth of the new energy sector, there is a potential risk that the performance is lower than expected. But at present, the probability of smoothly passing the performance test is high.
2) TMT is the sector with large expectation difference, especially the sector in TMT that is biased towards hard technology, such as communication, computer and some semiconductors. First, the industry boom remained stable and upward; Secondly, the valuation of the sector is basically at the bottom of history; In addition, policies such as new infrastructure may become market catalytic factors. It is suggested to actively layout the core industrial chain: automobile intelligent industrial chain, 5gtob end application, industrial digitization, Huawei industrial chain, etc.
Risk tips: the economic recovery is not as expected, the macro liquidity contraction risk, and the overseas black swan event
