The US dollar index fell somewhat, the interest rate spread between China and the United States continued to narrow, Ted interest rate spread continued to widen, and the overall balance of China’s capital was loose. Last week (2022031420220318), the US dollar index fell slightly. As of March 15, 2022, the net long position fell significantly. The interest rate spread between China and the United States continued to narrow, the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds increased significantly, and inflation expectations fell. For overseas, Ted interest rate spread continues to widen, and the overall interest rate is still at a relatively high level in history, and overseas liquidity is further tightened; For China, the overall balance of inter-bank funds is loose, the liquidity stratification is not obvious, and the term spread (10y-1y) continues to narrow. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat and volatility level of construction, coal and other sectors are at a relatively high level in history; In terms of research, computer, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textile and clothing, food and beverage, household appliances, Dianxin, medicine, banking and other sectors ranked first. Among them, the research heat of banking, nonferrous metals, textile and clothing, medicine and other sectors increased rapidly month on month.
Behind the gradual return to the North: the trading disk is dominant, and the configuration disk does not return significantly. Last week (2022031420220318), the northward allocation disk sold A-Shares of RMB 21.566 billion, and the northward trading disk bought A-Shares of RMB 6.467 billion. It is worth mentioning that the net sales amount of northward allocation disk in a single week is second only to the week of March 13, 2022. On a daily basis, the northbound trading market continued to flow out first and then returned sharply; The northward configuration disk first flows out sharply and then flows back slightly. In terms of industry, the consensus between northbound trading and allocation is to net buy agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, machinery, construction, coal, household appliances, communications and other industries, and net sell food and beverage, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, military industry and other industries. In terms of style, the northward configuration / trading sector net sells the market growth sector at the same time, while there are obvious differences in other types of style sectors. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the northbound allocation board net bought Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 1.064 billion yuan and sold Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 3.529 billion yuan and 1.645 billion yuan respectively. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the sectors of power innovation, communication and nonferrous metals.
The activity of the two financial institutions declined slightly, which is still equivalent to the level in late January 2022. Last week (2022031420220318), Liangrong sold a net 26.621 billion yuan, mainly buying medicine, non bank, textile and clothing, and mainly selling electronics, nonferrous metals, Dianxin, chemical industry, banking, machinery and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchases in textile and clothing, real estate, medicine, media, military industry, automobile, food and beverage and other sectors increased month on month, and the proportion of financing purchases in the above sectors was below the historical center. In terms of style, Liangrong net sells all kinds of style sectors.
The position of public offering has rebounded significantly, and the fund has been gradually redeemed after “bottom reading”, and the wide-based ETF mainly held by institutions continues to be greatly net redeemed. Last week (2022031420220318), the A-share position of the active partial stock fund rebounded significantly as a whole. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased the position of food and beverage, consumer service, TMT, Dianxin, transportation, nonferrous metals, machinery and other sectors, and mainly reduced the position of pharmaceutical sector. Last week, ETFs mainly held by individuals were first net subscribed and then gradually redeemed, which means that with the gradual rebound of the market, individual investors may choose to gradually redeem the fund, and the market may still be in the state of “negative feedback” (i.e. “sell up and buy down). Among them, ETFs related to new energy, science and technology, military industry, cycle, consumption and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, which are related to finance, real estate ETFs related to pharmaceutical and other sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its liability side (individuals) is to buy most industries and sell the pharmaceutical sector at the same time, while there are differences in the financial and real estate sector. It is worth mentioning that last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were still net redeemed as a whole, and they were mainly broad-based. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys pharmaceutical, non bank and other sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought financial real estate, machinery, construction, coal and some consumer sectors. On the whole, all kinds of investors have relatively high purchase consensus in construction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, coal, communication, machinery, electronics, textile and clothing and non bank sectors. It is worth mentioning that at present, the active partial equity funds are still choosing to “copy the bottom” in most industries, while the long-term funds represented by the northward allocation sector continue to choose to buy the middle and upper reaches sectors (green power, traditional energy, seed industry, pig breeding, etc.) and choose to sell financial real estate, TMT and downstream consumption.
Risk tip: measurement error.
