There are three reasons for the high growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to February: first, the low base supported the higher growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to February this year; Second, major projects were started ahead of schedule. This year, major project plans were released earlier and faster. At the same time, the amount of investment was basically higher than that of the same period last year. Industrial projects accounted for more than 30% of major projects in various regions, especially large projects such as new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, which also promoted the year-on-year increase of 34.4% in investment in high-tech industries; Third, under the green and intelligent transformation, the investment in technological transformation of enterprises is accelerated; Fourth, external demand is strong and domestic demand is improved. From January to February this year, external demand is still relatively strong. At the level of domestic demand, infrastructure development and consumption from January to February are not weak. Domestic demand is also improving marginally, which also supports the growth of manufacturing investment.
The follow-up of manufacturing investment is still under pressure, and the growth rate may gradually decline. Judging from the reasons for the growth of manufacturing investment from January to February, the steady growth policy has played an important role in promoting the rapid growth of manufacturing investment from January to February. However, in the future, manufacturing investment still faces two pressures: one is the gradual rise of the base factor, and the other is the pressure on corporate profits. In particular, the capital source of manufacturing investment is mainly self owned funds, and enterprise profits are also very important for the support of manufacturing investment. In the case of downstream enterprises, the overall profit distribution has gradually decreased, but the PPI has gradually improved. The downward trend of PPI will also reduce the support of price factors. From the growth rate of manufacturing investment, it may fall gradually in the future.
Real economy: strong expectation and weak reality. At present, the main contradiction of the real economy is still that the expectation is strong but the reality is weak. Although the data from January to February is strong and the expectation is strong, there is still the influence of the base factor. In addition, in March, the epidemic spread in China, the recovery of the production side is less than that in the same period of previous years, and the land and real estate market on the demand side is still depressed. Under the influence of weak reality and strong expectation, the black price fluctuates. Under the policy of ensuring supply and price stability, the price of coal is basically stable, and the prices of iron ore and rebar rise slightly.
Food prices: pork prices continued to decline. Food prices rose and fell this week. The Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rose slightly by 1.5%, egg prices continued to rise by 6% month on month, fruit prices rose by 3.9%, and pork prices continued to fall. This week, the wholesale price of pork fell by 1.5% month on month to 18 yuan / kg.
Commodities: crude oil prices fell. Geopolitics is still the leading factor in international commodity prices this week. Due to the positive signals in the Russia Ukraine negotiations, the breakthrough in the Iran nuclear agreement and the decline in high oil prices, Brent crude oil once fell below US $100. With the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, crude oil prices rebounded slightly, and Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil closed at US $107.9/barrel and US $104.7/barrel respectively. Geopolitics also impacted the price of non-ferrous metals, especially the price of aluminum, which fell by 7% to US $3288 / ton. Financial markets: stocks and bonds rebounded after the meeting of the financial committee boosted market sentiment. This week, the central bank net invested 260 billion yuan, and the capital level was generally loose, with dr007 falling 4bp to 2.06%. On Tuesday, the expectation of MLF interest rate cut failed, and the economic data from January to February greatly exceeded the expectation, causing doubts about policy tightening. Stocks and bonds were killed in the expected confusion. After the voice of the financial commission on Wednesday, stocks and bonds rebounded, the long-term performance of the bond market was stronger than the short-term performance, the yield of one-year treasury bond rose slightly, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bond was flat.
