Event:
According to the data released by the Ministry of finance, from January to February, the national general public budget revenue was 4620.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; The national general public budget expenditure was 3822.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The budget revenue of national government funds was 915.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.2%; The budget expenditure of national government funds was 1404.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%.
Key points:
The growth rate of public revenue slowed down, and the restorative growth trend was generally stable
The growth rate of fiscal revenue gradually slowed down, matching the weak performance of fundamentals. The overall fiscal revenue has made a stable start, reflecting that a series of steady growth policies have achieved remarkable results and the economy has recovered for the better since the beginning of the year. Specifically, in terms of income, consumption tax and personal income tax performed well. The resumption of work in some areas affected by the epidemic was blocked and the growth rate decreased. In 2021, China added about 1.1 trillion yuan in new tax cuts and fees. The government made it beneficial to the entity and the people, which effectively stimulated the market vitality and effectively supported the sustained and stable recovery of the national economy. In 2022, it is estimated that the tax rebate and tax reduction will be about 2.5 trillion yuan to deal with the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply impact and weakening expectation. At the same time, it will also put some pressure on fiscal revenue.
The speed of public financial expenditure has been accelerated, and the development of infrastructure has driven steady growth
The progress of fiscal expenditure has reached a new high in recent five years, and the leading force of fiscal expenditure has emerged. From the perspective of expenditure items, the expenditure on people's livelihood is still guaranteed, of which the expenditure on education, culture, tourism, sports and media, social security and employment increased by 9.1%, 5.7% and 4.8% respectively. It is worth noting that the performance of infrastructure expenditure was weak last year, and there was great pressure for steady growth in 2022. 2022 is the first year after the change of local government. The government's willingness to expand infrastructure and stabilize investment may increase. In the first two months, the expenditure on urban and rural community affairs, agriculture, forestry and water affairs and transportation increased by 7.6%, 4.5% and 14% respectively, showing a bright performance, and the steady growth was driven by infrastructure. With the advance issuance of the new special debt limit in 2022 and the acceleration of fiscal expenditure, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize and recover in the first half of this year.
The income from soil transfer increased negatively, and the special debt focused on key areas
Due to the implementation of the centralized land supply policy last year and the standardization and strengthening of the supervision of land transfer fees, the prosperity of the land market is low, and the growth rate of government fund income and land transfer fee income has declined. The real estate boom is expected to continue to affect the marginal income of real estate investment in 2022. This year, it plans to issue 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds, and 1.46 trillion yuan has been issued in advance to provide strong support for government investment this year, mainly focusing on short board areas, key directions and key projects. Key directions mainly include transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, ecological and environmental protection, social undertakings, urban and rural cold chain and other logistics infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, major national strategic projects and affordable housing projects.
Risk tips:
The epidemic worsened more than expected, and China's policy adjustment exceeded expectations.
