Macro liquidity
Chinese currency
In terms of money volume: Although the expectation of interest rate reduction in March failed, the central bank increased the amount of funds, with a net investment of 190 billion yuan, of which MLF continued to be over invested for two consecutive months to ensure sufficient market liquidity.
In terms of currency price, the short-term interest rate decreased slightly, and the fluctuation of medium and long-term interest rate was differentiated. Affected by the wide investment of central bank funds, short-term interest rates fell slightly. The expectation of interest rate cut in March failed, and the maturity yield of one-year treasury bonds rose slightly. The decline in credit data, combined with the landing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase, may increase the risk of capital outflow and exchange rate fluctuations, weaken macroeconomic expectations, the financial commission corrected the deviation, and the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds fluctuated downward under the game of long and short factors.
Global currency
In terms of money volume: considering the actual situation of curbing inflation and controlling economic recession, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting kicked off, and the target interest rate range was only raised by 25bp. The process of monetary normalization continued to advance, and the overall monetary policy still showed the characteristics of tightening.
In terms of currency price, the yields of us two-year Treasury bonds and 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 25bp and 14bp respectively, reaching 1.97% and 2.14%. The term spread narrowed to 0.17%, which was further narrowed compared with the level of 0.25% last week. It has become the narrowest spread when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time, and the upside down risk is only one step away.
A-share market liquidity
Capital supply side
The overall inflow of foreign capital remained at a low level, but the net outflow of foreign capital remained at a narrow level in the last two days of the grace period. Although the performance of domestic capital is generally weak, the transfer of ETF funds from in to out releases a positive signal, and there is also a significant inflow of funds in the national team sector. Combined with the continuous recovery of the A-share market in the last three days of the current period, the market stopped falling and stabilized, and the investment sentiment was repaired to a certain extent.
Capital demand side
The capital demand of this period continued to shrink, and the financing scale of the primary market and the reduction scale of industrial capital decreased. At the same time, the volume of A-Shares traded in this period, and the transaction costs rose slightly at the same time, showing the resonance of the Shanghai stock index, transaction volume and turnover rate. Combined with the further expansion of the scale of industrial capital holdings, it shows the further easing of A-share trading sentiment to a certain extent. Overall, the capital demand is still low, and the pressure on the liquidity of the stock market is relatively limited.
Industry capital flow
The sentiment of foreign investment in the current period has warmed up, but on the whole, it still tends to be cautious. The flow direction of capital industry going north is relatively consistent with that in the previous period, there is no obvious change in industry preference, and the overall capital outflow of the net outflow industry is lower than the margin of the previous period; Domestic investment sentiment is relatively pessimistic, with net outflow in most industries. The attitude of foreign capital towards the financial sector has improved in the current period. The electronic power equipment sector continues the trend of net outflow of domestic and foreign capital at the same time. The pharmaceutical and biological sector rose against the market in the current period, and there are differences in the flow of funds between domestic and foreign capital.
Southbound capital
The Hang Seng index rebounded from the bottom, the Hong Kong stock market was repaired, and the southward capital sentiment improved simultaneously. Judging from the performance of recent two southward funds, the growth and consumption sector is favored by funds; However, the defensive industry represented by the large financial sector is not favored by southbound funds, which reflects that funds pay less attention to the defensive sector and increase their risk appetite.
Risk tips
The economic downturn accelerated, the policy was less than expected, and the epidemic broke out repeatedly.
