Macro strategy Daily: the heads of China and the United States will soon exchange views on China US relations and issues of common concern

Key investment points:

China and the United States will exchange views on issues of common concern to Biden

President Xi Jinping will exchange views with US President Joe Biden on China US relations and issues of common concern on the evening of March 18, Beijing time.

The two heads of state are about to exchange views, which may be a certain boost from the emotional side.

The meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau made arrangements to strictly carry out epidemic prevention and control

The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on March 17 to analyze the epidemic situation of covid-19 pneumonia and deploy strict epidemic prevention and control. The general secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping presided over the meeting Xi Jinping stressed that we should always adhere to the people first and life first, adhere to scientific, accurate and dynamic clearing, and curb the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible. We should improve the level of scientific and accurate prevention and control, constantly optimize epidemic prevention and control measures, and strengthen scientific and technological research and development of vaccines, rapid detection reagents and drugs, so as to make prevention and control more targeted. We should maintain strategic concentration, strive for progress while maintaining stability, coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, take more effective measures, strive to achieve the maximum prevention and control effect at the least cost, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development

Recently, the local epidemic situation in China has shown the characteristics of many points, wide range and frequent occurrence. At present, this round of epidemic situation may have a certain impact on the economy in March, and the disturbance to consumption may be relatively greater.

Russia Ukraine negotiations now “compromise” signal

The fourth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continued to advance. The two sides released some cautious and optimistic signals on the 16th, saying that the negotiations were more pragmatic and there was hope for a compromise.

Ukraine’s demands for negotiations include the realization of a ceasefire. Bodoliyak, a Ukrainian negotiator and adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, said on the 16th that Ukrainian and Russian leaders are expected to have direct dialogue on the ceasefire in the next few days. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said on the 16th that the two sides have “come close to reaching an agreement” on some positions. Despite the “difficulties” in the negotiations, “there are still some hopes of reaching a compromise”. Merkinski, head of the Russian negotiating delegation, said earlier on the 16th that Ukraine proposed to become a demilitarized neutral country according to the Austrian or Swedish model and retain its army and navy. This proposal can be regarded as a “compromise” option.

On the same day, on the 16th, Ukrainian President Zelensky held a wired meeting with US Congressmen, calling for tougher sanctions against Russia and more weapons to Ukraine. At the same time, he reiterated his call for the establishment of a no fly zone over Ukraine. However, the United States and NATO have once again “cold confrontation” over Zelensky’s call for the establishment of a no fly zone. The United States previously said that the establishment of a no fly zone would lead to a conflict with Russian warplanes, “which will make us face a situation of war with Russia”.

The financing balance decreased. On March 16, the balance of A-share financing was 1598015 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 4.337 billion yuan; The balance of margin trading was 1688427 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.065 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1507603 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 6.609 billion yuan.

Net inflow of land stock connect and net outflow of Hong Kong stock connect. On March 17, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 5.365 billion yuan, including 70.828 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 65.462 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 1596089 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $205 million on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $34.755 billion and a sale transaction of HK $34.960 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2280566 billion.

Money market interest rates fell. On March 17, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 2.0090%, down 3.10bp, Shibor one week was 2.0830%, down 3.20bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 1.9980% overnight, down 2.77bp and 2.0792% a week, down 3.29bp. The 10-year maturity yield of China national debt was 2.7876%, down 0.76bp.

US stocks rose, while European stocks fluctuated. On March 17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 3448076 points, up 1.23%; The S & P 500 index closed at 441167 points, up 1.23%; The NASDAQ index closed at 1361478, up 1.33%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 661252 points, up 0.36%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 1438806 points, down 0.36%; Britain’s FTSE 100 index closed at 738534, flat 0.00%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 2530785 points, up 0.58%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 2150123, up 7.04%.

The dollar index fell. On March 17, the dollar index fell 0.36% to 980175. The euro rose 0.53% against the dollar to 1.1093. The dollar fell 0.13% against the yen to 1185970. The pound rose 0.04% against the dollar to 1.3153. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3494, depreciating by 0.05%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3645, up 0.05%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3406, up 0.62%.

Commodity prices rose. On March 17, Comex gold futures rose 1.77% to close at 194300 US dollars / ounce. WTI crude oil futures rose 9.06% to close at US $102.07/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 9.17% to close at US $107.01/barrel. LME copper three-month futures rose 1.98% to close at US $10254 / ton.

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