Chinese and American stock markets rebounded this week, led by growth style. The US stock index rose 5.5%, the S & P 500 index rose 6.16%, and the NASDAQ index rose 8.18%. The S & P 500 index and the NASDAQ index recorded the largest weekly increase since November 2020. The Chinese market was first depressed and then raised. The Shanghai index fell 1.77%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.95%, and the gem index rose 1.81%. The cumulative outflow of funds from the North was 16.7 billion yuan. In terms of industry, real estate (1.98%), non bank finance (1.68%) and pharmaceutical biology (1.08%) led the increase; Steel (- 4.62%), public utilities (- 4.14%) and food and beverage (- 3.63%) led the decline.
In the first half of the year, the policy window period is opening, and the correction of deviation market is on the way. With the easing of concerns about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike boots, the liquidity pressure that the market has been worried about for a long time is expected to ease in stages, and the global risk assets are expected to usher in a breathing period. Affected by the strong stability maintenance signal released by the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission, combined with the video meeting of the China US Summit on Friday, the market’s early concerns about China concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been greatly alleviated, and the A-share market sentiment is expected to be further repaired. With the arrival of the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the performance of the growth sector is significantly stronger than the market, and the correction market has been quietly started in the market adjustment.
In addition to the growth style, offline economic recovery and essential consumer goods often lead the market rebound. From the market point of view, after the Spring Festival in 2020, A-Shares adjusted as a whole, but then quickly recovered their decline. Later, affected by the overseas market, although there was a double bottom, different indexes were affected differently. After repeated outbreaks in China and overseas in the past, with the downward revision of long-term economic expectations, the overall monetary policy has widened, and the growth performance will be relatively dominant. In addition, the rebound strength of industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and social services deserves attention. At present, the overseas epidemic is temporarily low, the peak of the epidemic in China may have passed, and the market is expected to return to the expectation of economic repair. However, it is noteworthy that 2020 is still in the rising period of the credit cycle, and the short-term disturbance of the epidemic has not changed the market trend. At present, it is in the bottom stage of the credit cycle. After the epidemic, we still need to pay attention to the marginal changes of the future credit environment.
Prosperity is still the best defense. Looking forward to the future, with the implementation of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the China US high-level meeting promoted the repair of market sentiment. The window period of superimposed annual report and first quarter report is approaching, and the dining window of the A-share market this year is opening. In such an environment, the boom track leader with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment will usher in a round of restorative market. From the perspective of structure, the current focus on the performance, and the prosperity track leaders such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and military industry that can be determined to be fulfilled are expected to usher in phased repair. On the other hand, the essential consumption sectors such as agriculture, food, textile and clothing benefiting from inflation expectations are also expected to usher in a performance inflection point. At present, China’s epidemic concerns have eased, and offline economic recovery related industries such as social service, retail, catering, shipping and traditional media are also ushering in the layout window period. The theme focuses on digital economy, comprehensive registration system reform, etc.
Risk tip: geopolitical conflicts exceeded expectations, Sino US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the pace of policy promotion was lower than expected.
