Last week, we firmly put forward the “firm strategic bottom: when the Dragon leaps into the abyss when the dragon is in the field?” Market judgment. See long Zaitian in March and have confidence in the 3000 support level of Shanghai Composite Index. At the same time, we maintained our previous prediction of the end of the current round of economy in the second quarter. The inflection point for the improvement of molecular fundamentals is expected to be closer, and the negative impact of external factors (Russia Ukraine conflict, fed interest rate hike and global inflation) is weakened. After the fed interest rate hike on March 17, China’s monetary policy is still “dominated by me”. The possibility of entering a unilateral downward trend in the equity market is low, similar to that in 2012. In the second quarter, A-Shares jumped into the abyss, The trend of “Nike type” is firm and predictable.
Here, we maintain the judgment that we are currently in “positional warfare” (strategic stalemate, staying focused, not suitable for switching back and forth). The consensus of the market will focus on the low position, looking for growth + short term (Q1 performance exceeds expectations and strong policy support).
For the current four main lines: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. At present, we are in the process of “delivering steady growth and turning the corner of high prosperity”. Our proposed configuration is still high prosperity and steady growth post epidemic repair global inflation. In addition, in our previous communication with market investors, the order of market preference is: growth, cycle weighted blue chip old infrastructure and consumption.
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed
