Summary of key reports
Total research
The most hawkish moment for the Federal Reserve to lower economic expectations has passed — Comments on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March 2022
Release date: March 17, 2022
Analyst: Gao Ruidong
The dot matrix of the interest rate meeting in March managed hawkish expectations in the market and effectively controlled inflation expectations. Although the Federal Reserve lowered its 2022 economic growth forecast, Powell stressed that the US economy remained resilient and alleviated market concerns about the economic recession. Looking ahead, a radical interest rate hike will curb credit supply and consumer demand and raise the risk of a hard landing for the economy. If the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to slow down and reduce the pressure of oil prices on inflation, the most hawkish moment of the Federal Reserve has passed. Maintain the leading interest rate hike, the pace of interest rate hike slowed down in the second half of the year, and the number of interest rate hikes in the whole year was lower than the judgment expected by the market.
The economic data is much higher than expected. How good is it—— Comments on economic data from January to February 2022
Release date: March 15, 2022
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Zhao gege
From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed investment, social zero and production increased significantly, higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate rose significantly. On the one hand, the base was low at the beginning of last year. On the other hand, the month on month growth rate of real estate investment, infrastructure investment and social zero was better than that in the same period in history. However, it should also be noted that the month on month performance of manufacturing investment is lower than seasonal, the unemployment rate has increased, and the foundation of economic recovery is still unstable. Next, it is expected that the steady growth policy will continue to make efforts and continue to consolidate the confidence of market players.
Risk factors are slowing down, and positive factors are expected to dominate the market upward — Comments on the sharp rise of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares
Release date: March 16, 2022
Analyst: Zhang Yusheng / Gong Jian; Contact: Liu Fang
Today, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets swept away the haze of the past few days and rose sharply. The most direct reason for the market rise is the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council chaired by Vice Premier Liu He, which responded to the important issues concerned by the capital market in the near future. In the medium and long term, the positive factors of the market are accumulating. We are optimistic about the current round of rebound of a shares, and the industry allocation pays attention to the two directions of steady growth and consumption. The bottom of Hong Kong stocks has been seen, and attention is paid to follow-up investment opportunities.
Take history as a mirror and build a bottom — a review of the sharp decline of A-Shares in history
Release date: March 16, 2022
Analyst: Qi Yanran / song chaopan; Contact: Qu Hongyu
From the space law, time characteristics and net outflow of main funds of the sharp declines of the main broad-based indexes of a shares, experience shows that the callback market is likely to come to an end in terms of amplitude and time. From historical experience, when the market is at the bottom, fund managers tend to liberalize large subscription, and investors can continue to pay attention to the opening signal. Gain rebound income and be optimistic about growth and small and medium-sized stocks.
Intellectualization reshapes the automobile industry chain and grasps the investment opportunity of incremental market — convertible bond investment opportunity under automobile intellectualization
Release date: March 17, 2022
Analyst: Zhang Xu; Contact: Mao Zhenqiang
Electrification is the first half and intellectualization is the second half. The automobile industry chain will undergo great changes from “mechanical definition – hardware definition – software definition”, and many incremental markets will be born. We have sorted out the key convertible bonds of the automobile intelligent industry for investors’ reference. They are Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) (Lianchuang convertible bonds), Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (Weill convertible bonds), Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) (Changxin convertible bonds).
