Key investment points:
Since 2022, based on the macro background of the Fed's interest rate hike and China's steady growth, we have issued a series of reports suggesting avoiding the real and beating the weak, and shifting from "three highs" to "three lows". Since this year, the "three lows" sector has been in decline and has continued to outperform since January 1. How do you see the follow-up interpretation and comparative advantage?
Three lows lead to victory
Looking forward to 2022, based on the macro background of the Fed's interest rate hike and China's steady growth, we suggest avoiding the real and beating the weak, shifting from the "three high" configuration from 2019 to 2021 to "three low", and the comparative advantage of the "three low" configuration may last until the third quarter. For the "three low" varieties, there are two clues: steady growth and new growth. The leader of large market value is preferred in the steady growth chain, covering the real estate chain, travel chain and state-owned enterprise reform; Explore small and beautiful in the new growth chain, focusing on domestic substitution. Among them, looking ahead to q2-q3, steady growth is the main, supplemented by new growth. In other words, before the third quarter, the new growth opportunities are mainly individual stocks and bands, rather than continuous sector opportunities. In terms of bands, the financial reporting season from late March to mid April is expected to be an active period.
Macro: two variables, still waiting for the inflection point
This year's macro environment outside China is different from that from 2019 to 2021. On the one hand, China is still in the window of stable growth, on the other hand, the interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve is approaching, and the two macro variables may gradually become clear by the third quarter.
Performance: the financial report advantage appears this year
According to the calculation of Q1 profit in 22 years, the overall performance of the "three low" sector represented by the travel chain is leading year-on-year. In terms of year-on-year growth, social services (603%), transportation (179%), non-ferrous metals (119%), computers (85%) and coal (65%) ranked first in Q1 performance growth in 2022, mainly focusing on travel chain and upstream resources; In terms of month on month growth, the performance growth of light industry manufacturing (711%), automobile (298%), public utilities (269%), architectural decoration (247%) and transportation (236%) took the lead. At the same time, combined with the disclosed annual report / Express / forecast of 2021, from the perspective of exceeding expectations, the "three low" sectors such as banking, non banking, medical beauty, coal and commercial retail rank first.
Marginal: policy assistance, expected strengthening
In terms of the "three low" sector, steady growth and travel chain are important clues, which are expected to strengthen in the near future. As far as the travel chain is concerned, combined with the views of the transportation group and combing the recent epidemic prevention policies and progress, we believe that the travel demand will benefit from more refined and scientific epidemic prevention control and the promotion of covid-19 specific drugs. Specifically, the relevant companies: the airport sector, pay attention to Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) ; Aviation sector, focusing on Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , etc; Hotel sector, focusing on Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) ; For the scenic area, pay attention to Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) .
On March 16, the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting, which studied macroeconomic operation, real estate enterprises, China concept shares, platform economic governance, Hong Kong financial market stability and other related issues. The fundamental expectation of stable growth chain is constantly strengthened, combined with the industry view: the banking sector pays attention to Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) ; Real estate sector, focusing on Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Resources Land and poly property; Transportation construction sector, focusing on Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ; New material sector, focusing on Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) etc; Real estate chain sector, focusing on Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , etc.
Risk tip: the performance growth of the sector is lower than expected; Global liquidity tightened more than expected.
