Ping An View:
Real economy: from last Saturday to this Friday, 14000 new cases of confirmed local diseases were found in China, the operating rate was divided, industrial products were destocked, the primary land market continued to be depressed, most black goods continued to rise, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices rose. 1) From last Saturday to this Friday (March 12 to March 18), a total of 14000 new local diagnoses were added in 24 provinces, cities and autonomous regions such as Jilin, Shandong and Guangdong, which was significantly higher than that from March 5 to 11. Among them, nearly 80% of the new local diagnoses in Jilin Province. 2) Industrial operating rate differentiation. Among them, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 56.4%, with a month on month increase of 21.4 percentage points; The operating rate of coking enterprises was 76.9%, up 2.3 percentage points month on month; The operating rate of semi steel tires of automobile tires was 69.2%, down 2.8 percentage points month on month; The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plant was 24.9%, down 4.3 percentage points month on month. 3) Industrial products to inventory. Among the finished products, the warehouse of rebar factory + social warehouse decreased by 0.6% month on month last week, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 4.6% month on month. In the raw material inventory, the port iron ore inventory decreased by 1.4% compared with last week, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking plant can be used for 15.5 days, 0.3 days shorter than last week. 4) The primary land market continued to be depressed. This week, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 11.6% month on month; Last week, the land supply area and transaction area of Baicheng decreased by 16.0% and 34.5% month on month respectively. The year-on-year decline of commercial housing sales, new construction and developer funds from January to February announced on Tuesday was more than 10%. On Wednesday, the gold stability Council of the State Council and many ministries and commissions said they would promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. However, as the current commercial housing sales have not recovered, we think it will take time for the real estate cycle to bottom out. 5) Most black commodities continued to rise. This week, the spot prices of coke, coking coal and iron ore rose by 6.3%, 3.4% and 1.4% respectively month on month. The spot prices of power coal and screw thread steel were basically flat month on month; The corresponding futures prices rose 0.4%, 0.4%, 3.9%, 1.3% and 0.7% month on month respectively. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rose 1.5% month on month. Among the main Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.2% month on month; The wholesale price of fruits rose 3.9% month on month; The wholesale price of eggs rose 6.0% month on month. The wholesale price of pork fell by 1.5% month on month and fell to 18.00 yuan / kg on Friday.
Capital market: the financial market fluctuated greatly this week, and the exchange rates of a shares, treasury bonds and RMB were adjusted. In terms of money market, the central bank's net investment in open market operation this week was 260 billion. From the trend of dr007 and R007, the capital level was basically stable this week. In the bond market, the economic data from January to February released on Tuesday was much higher than expected, and the MLF's expectation of interest rate reduction failed. On that day, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 5bp. After the financial stability meeting of the State Council on Wednesday, the market's concerns about foreign capital outflow eased, and the yield of government bonds began to decline. In the stock market, the decline continued on Monday and Tuesday, and there was a "V" rebound after the meeting of the gold stability meeting of the State Council on Wednesday. However, throughout the week, the main A-share indexes fell except the gem index. In the foreign exchange market, the Fed raised interest rates this week. Due to the rising risk of stagflation in the United States, the high level of the US dollar index fell and depreciated by 0.9% throughout the week. This week, the onshore and offshore RMB depreciated by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively against the US dollar. We believe that the same decline in the exchange rates of a shares, treasury bonds and RMB this week is related to the outflow of foreign capital caused by the rise of market concerns about China US relations under geopolitical conflict. The gold stability meeting of the State Council on Wednesday and the video meeting between the two heads of state on Friday have helped to ease the pessimistic expectations of the market. It is less likely that RMB assets will continue to adjust significantly in the short term.
Risk tip: the steady growth is not as strong as expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
