Summary (core view):
In 2022, the global economic recovery continues, but the differentiation is different, and the liquidity is facing an inflection point
The global economy continues to recover from the huge impact caused by the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic. The transition from the recovery process to normal expansion will lead to further differentiation and imbalance of the economic pattern. The re deterioration of the epidemic, labor shortage and inflation are still the key variables determining the pace of economic recovery. The Federal Reserve has started to reduce the scale of bond purchase, the European Central Bank will stop buying assets in 2022 as planned, and some countries in emerging economies have taken interest rate increase measures. On the whole, with the increased risk of global "stagflation" in 2022, monetary policy will show a tight trend, liquidity is facing an inflection point, and there is a certain risk of fluctuation in the financial market.
In 2022, under the escort of policies, China's economy will be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability
The macroeconomic policy in 2022 will ensure that the economic operation is stable and the economic growth is stable. Fiscal policy focuses on improving efficiency, pays more attention to accuracy and sustainability in regulation, monetary policy is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten under the requirements of stable growth target, and liquidity will remain reasonably abundant throughout the year. Under the resonance of exogenous and endogenous factors, China's economic operation continues to enter the medium speed growth platform, and the momentum of economic growth still faces the pressure of slowdown. It is predicted that the GDP growth rate in 2022 will show a trend of low before high, and the annual growth rate will remain at about 5.5%. Driven by the new round of pig cycle, labor cost and service cost, CPI has increased, and PPI will gradually fall under policy regulation.
In 2022, under the important strategic opportunity period of further promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, the field of high-tech manufacturing, new energy, digital economy and consumption upgrading will usher in large growth space.
Risk tips:
The outbreak of overseas epidemics exceeded expectations and interfered with local epidemics in China, Sino US relations, global inflation exceeded expectations, economic growth and monetary policy shift expectations, and local government debt risk.
