Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, and there was a further diving rhythm at the beginning of the market. With the rebound of track stocks, the stock index stabilized and rose. In the afternoon, the decline kinetic energy of the stock index was exhausted and pulled back near the end of the market. Finally, the three major stock indexes closed on the K line with a long shadow line.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , after the continuous sharp decline of a shares, it ushered in a huge contraction for the first time, is expected to usher in a moderation period in the short term, but the rebound still needs to wait and see . On the disk, the varieties with high institutional congestion are still alarmed, and the heavyweight stocks with heavy institutional positions have broken one after another, which is closely related to institutional position adjustment, so it is still not suitable to blindly copy the bottom in the short term. In terms of operation, it is still recommended to control positions, see more and move less, moderately increase the allocation of low-level blue chips, so as to realize the balanced allocation of value and growth, and focus on the reversal layout opportunities of large finance, new and old infrastructure and epidemic damaged industries.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan securities mentioned that on Thursday, the Shanghai index opened low and continued to be weak, and the northward capital also showed a net outflow trend. Under the background of no excessive energy contraction, the market's falling momentum has weakened, it is expected that the market is expected to stabilize in the repeated shocks, and pay attention to the change of energy and the rotation of the plate . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Guosheng securities mentioned that under the policy expectation of stable growth, the market has limited room to fall. It pays close attention to the changes of trading volume and patiently waits for the stabilization confirmation of the index support point. It is suggested to control the position, pay attention to the repair opportunities of new energy and auto parts sectors with large adjustment in the near future, the rotation opportunities of active themes such as digital currency, Yuan universe and Winter Olympics, and the individual stock opportunities expected in the annual report .
In addition, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that after new year's day, after the Shanghai composite index continued to fall for three consecutive days, it obtained strong support near the semi annual line, there is an expectation of oversold rebound in the short term . Due to the frequent conversion of market hot spots and the lack of good profit-making effect, the mood of holding money and waiting for OTC funds is still heavy, and the characteristics of stock game are still the same. It is recommended that investors maintain balanced allocation. It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term oversold rebound of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to focus on investment opportunities in engineering construction, cement and building materials, household appliances, food and beverage industries in the short term, and continue to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Huaxin Securities said that the trend of subsequent A-Shares depends on the change of three factors . Specifically, first, there is still room for US bond interest rates to rise, but they will not rise rapidly in the short term, and it is unlikely to exceed 2%; Second, the high-low switching will continue, and the valuation repair will dominate the cross year market; Third, the overvalued industry has fallen, and the undervalued industry has been repaired. It is difficult to achieve cost-effective conversion overnight. The market is looking for a new equilibrium.
The agency further analyzed the three main investment lines of . First, the resonance between new and old infrastructure under the background of steady growth; Second, the undervalued sector supported by abundant liquidity; Third, the food and beverage sector benefiting from the Spring Festival effect and improved profitability .
In the macro aspect, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the minutes of the FOMC meeting in December 2021 (released on January 5, 2022) show the necessity of raising interest rates in advance and the possibility of shrinking the table in advance under the background of steady recovery of economic fundamentals, sustained high inflation and limited disturbance of the epidemic situation. It indicates that the acceleration of Fed tightening may promote the rapid increase of US bond interest rate, leading to the adjustment of stock market. For China's bond market, the tightening of the Fed's policy will lead to the convergence of China US interest rate spread, or a certain disturbance to the rhythm of foreign bond purchase, but it is difficult to change the trend of increasing foreign holdings.
In terms of operation strategy, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that there are still opportunities for local structural market in the trend of market differentiation and shock. can focus on the four major sectors of Chinese medicine, hydrogen energy, green electricity and digital currency in the short term. needs to pay attention to rhythm. In the medium and long term, the direction of consumption of Baijiu and pork, and the undervalued direction of military industry, are also cost-effective.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that in January, the balanced allocation of the market is better. three main allocation lines: 1. "Traditional infrastructure + real estate" under the background of "steady growth", such as building materials and real estate; 2) The main investment lines of "high-end manufacturing & hard technology": new energy (vehicle), military industry, electronics, etc; 3) Strong themes that benefit from policy (support), such as yuanuniverse (media), traditional Chinese medicine, etc. .
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that it remained optimistic about the market in January, and the three factors of economy, liquidity and policy resonated and actively increased. Among them, the valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and stable growth policy is the main driving force of restlessness in spring, and the growth style is expected to become the main line of the market after phased adjustment. In terms of allocation, growth is dominant in the environment of "weak economy + wide currency". After adjustment, the growth sector has a good cost performance. Two directions can be considered, one is the media, military, computer and other industries with good performance valuation matching, and the other is to find a more certain direction along the deductive path of the industrial cycle , Focus on software development, it services, optical images and other subdivided fields under the background of automotive intelligence and meta universe. The preferred industries in January are: electronics, media, national defense and military industry.
