Strategic view
On Thursday, A-Shares rose unilaterally in the morning, and the gem index rose by more than 4% at one time. In the afternoon, the stock index soared inertia and fell after shock. Real estate and medicine led the rise in the big market, subject stocks blossomed at many points, and consumer stocks generally recovered. The Shanghai index returned to 3200 points and the gem index recovered 2700 points. As of the close, the Shanghai stock index rose 1.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.41%, the gem index rose 2.87%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.96%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.75%, and the China Stock Exchange 500 rose 1.81%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 3768, higher than the average value of 1780 last week and lower than 4308 in the previous trading day. The number of daily limit was 115, higher than the average value of 65 last week and lower than 138 in the previous trading day. The number of decliners in the two cities was 834, lower than the average of 2446 last week and higher than 384 in the previous trading day. The number of drop limits was 3, lower than the average value of 31 last week and 9 on the previous trading day. Northbound funds had a net inflow of 5.364 billion yuan, with an average net outflow of 7.264 billion yuan last week and a net outflow of 82 million yuan on the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 1277076 billion yuan, with an average value of 1085651 billion yuan last week, compared with 1192743 billion yuan the previous trading day. A shares have rebounded one after another, which has been basically verified for the current market. Our judgment for the next stage is that the price of A-Shares will rebound after extreme panic. At present, we define this round of rise as rebound. After general rise, there will be obvious differentiation in the market of A-Shares in the next stage.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: long and short funds leave the market sharply, and the short-term index is still repeated
(1) on March 17, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 219300, 105900 and 327300 respectively, and the day on month changes were – 3.31%, – 4.67% and – 3.07%;
(2) on March 17, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was -3.7 points, -1.62 points and -8.32 points, which was 0.19 points, -2.07 points and -5.25 points higher than that of the previous trading day.
Operation suggestion: ih2204 mainly focuses on high throwing and low absorption, with support level of 2850 points and resistance level of 2915 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the PCR value continues to rise, and the bearish sentiment of funds has increased
The stock values of options (ETF) and PCR (ETF) rose by Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) and Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) respectively, of which the stock values of options (ETF) and PCR (ETF) were 3000 and Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) respectively
(2) on March 17, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 23.8% and 23.3% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option decreased significantly.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Steady strategy: buy a 300etf put April 4100 option and sell a 300etf put April 4000 option at the same time. The maximum return of a single portfolio is 698 yuan and the maximum loss is 302 yuan; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
