From the perspective of listed companies, seek the verification of economic data from January to February 2022 at the micro level. Since the beginning of the year, the market has continued to fluctuate. In order to boost investor confidence, as of the evening of March 16, more than 100 listed companies have successively disclosed the operating data and operating conditions for the first two months of 2022. Of course, we need to realize that the listed companies that disclose business data often have relatively excellent performance, so we can’t simply regard the performance of these companies as the overall performance prediction of the market. However, from another perspective, the operating data of listed companies just provide a new perspective for interpreting the economic data of the first two months, which is more micro and closer to the market.
Price side: inflation elasticity that PPI can’t reflect year-on-year → strong performance and continuous toughness of the mid and upper cycle sector. From the perspective of price, in the fourth quarter of 2021 when the economy is in recession, the 120 day moving average of Nanhua industrial products index is still not retreated; When demand began to bottom out and pick up recently, the index hit an all-time high. Reflected in the PPI, it shows that the year-on-year growth rate is still marginal decline, and the abnormal phenomenon of month on month rise, which is more responsive to price toughness. This means that under the background of obvious supply side bottlenecks, investors will systematically underestimate the resilience of the performance of the cyclical sector based on the framework of judging the end of the boom of the upstream cycle after the year-on-year decline of PPI in the past: even when the Q1 high base in 2021 and the Q1 economy in 2022 are still in the stage of stabilization and recovery, the profit growth of the middle and upstream cyclical sector represented by industrial metals (copper, aluminum) and coal is still generally above 100% from January to February 2022, It continues the strength and toughness since the fourth quarter of 2021.
Production side: higher than expected industrial added value → high prosperity of high-end manufacturing industry chain. From January to February 2022, the industrial added value reached 7.5% year-on-year, at a historical high in the same period, echoing the marginal positive PMI. Structurally, in addition to the upstream raw material sector (coal, petroleum and petrochemical, etc.), the production of high-end manufacturing and some consumer manufacturing in the middle reaches expanded significantly compared with December. From the perspective of listed companies, the revenue and performance of Listed Companies in the new energy and semiconductor industry chain continued a high boom from January to February 2022, and showed signs of diffusion to a wider dimension. The performance growth rate of many listed companies that disclosed business data was more than 100%, which was the main driving force driving the expansion of high-end manufacturing production; There is a certain differentiation within the pharmaceutical sector, and the performance of CXO is significantly better than that of other sectors; For the consumer manufacturing sector, we can find that the performance of Baijiu, dairy products and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing sector is generally higher than that of investors in 2022.
Demand side: structural highlights in the three carriages → strength and toughness of foreign trade, high performance increase of high-tech equipment and extensive repair of consumption sector. From January to February 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of exports reached 16.3%. While the margin declined slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period in history, and the driving force was still strong, which can be verified by the high performance increase of Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co.Ltd(603565) listed companies and the sharp growth of Liaoning Port Co.Ltd(601880) transportation trains. From January to February 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods reached 6.7%, higher than the highest growth rate in 2021, and the overall recovery was near the historical long-term trend level. According to the sample of Listed Companies in the consumer sector that have disclosed their operations, it can be found that the performance of individual stocks has basically been restored to the central level before the epidemic, whether in terms of revenue or net profit growth. The cumulative year-on-year reading of the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry from January to February was 20.9%, of which 18.5% can be explained by the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry, which is the main reason for the higher than expected investment in the manufacturing industry. We further counted the stocks whose main business is equipment manufacturing among the listed companies that disclosed business data. It can be found that the stocks of semiconductor equipment, consumer electronics manufacturing equipment and medical devices also recorded high performance growth in the first two months of 2022. At the same time, we note that the delivery volume or new orders disclosed by Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) in the announcement of CNC machine tool equipment production company Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) with wider downstream demand and more general equipment application are more than 60%, which further verifies the strong investment demand for downstream equipment. Finally, the gradual development of infrastructure investment and the vigorous structural power investment can also be verified from the data disclosed by the company. For example, the revenue / profit of two cable companies Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) and Hebei Huatong Wires And Cables Group Co.Ltd(605196) that disclosed their business data increased year-on-year, both significantly improved compared with 2021 Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) in the first two months, 445 new energy and power projects were signed, and the newly signed contract amount was at a high level in the same period in history.
The “Silence” in the performance forecast is more “deafening”. We still need to note that the purpose of this disclosure of operating data from January to February is to stabilize the current abnormally fluctuating stock price and investor confidence. Companies with relatively excellent performance are often more inclined to disclose. However, the financial real estate chain and automobile chain that are more related to the growth of economic volume, as well as some digital economy related to government investment, few listed companies have disclosed the operating data from January to February. This has aroused our concern: in the economy, are there still some listed companies in the quagmire of economic pressure? Of course, it may also indicate that steady growth is expected by more micro business entities. The current situation of the booming industry that was still “pre happy” before also deserves more consideration. For the upstream resource products industry, investors need to find that it still has the value of profit toughness under the general decline of the downstream boom. This is very different from the past. Does it mean that the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain has been reshaped? For the medium and high boom sectors of emerging industries that are also in the middle and lower reaches, because they always have different degrees of cross check relationship with the above-mentioned traditional economic sectors, we should also pay close attention to whether the high growth of their short-term performance is supported by the “big cake” of the industrial chain.
Risk tip: representativeness error, economic recovery is less than expected.
