[next week’s strategy]
Review of this week’s trend
This week, the index bottomed out and rebounded, and the trend fluctuated sharply. At the beginning of the week, the index fell sharply, and the Shanghai index fell one after another at 3200 and 3100 points. In the middle of the week, with the signal of maintaining stability released by the financial commission, the index rebounded strongly. From Wednesday to Friday, it went out of three consecutive positive days, and the Shanghai index stood at 3200 points. From the weekly K-line, the Shanghai index fell 1.77%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.95% and the gem index rose 1.81%. Individual stocks showed a general downward trend, while real estate, non bank finance, medicine, biology and social services closed up; Steel, utilities, environmental protection, coal and food and beverage sectors ended lower. This week, there was a net outflow of 16.693 billion yuan from the north, including 7.344 billion yuan from the Shanghai stock market and 9.349 billion yuan from the Shenzhen stock market.
Study and judgment of the general trend next week: medium and long-term layout starts
Judging from the market this week:
First, the economic recovery exceeded expectations, and “steady growth” achieved a good start.
Secondly, the financial Commission released a strong signal to maintain stability and boost market confidence.
Moreover, the Fed raised interest rates as scheduled, the market digested more fully, and the short-term impact weakened.
Finally, the impact of net capital outflow from the North may gradually weaken, and we should pay attention to the liquidity release of the central bank.
From the perspective of the market environment, the impact of the meeting of the financial commission continued to ferment. The central bank, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Ministry of Finance and other ministries and commissions made a comprehensive voice. Various positive policies are gradually implemented and fulfilled, which has become an important factor to promote the stability of the market. In addition, the implementation of the government work report after the two sessions, the steady growth policy may continue to increase, boosting the economy in the first quarter. In terms of overseas markets, the Fed raised interest rates as scheduled, which is in line with expectations. In the short term, the “boot landing” has weakened the market impact. We still need to pay attention to the follow-up actions of other central banks around the world. In addition, geopolitical factors, repeated outbreaks in China and other factors are still important aspects affecting the market.
Overall, the market fluctuated sharply this week, from the sharp decline at the beginning of the week to the rapid rebound and ushered in three consecutive positive days. The market fluctuated widely, and the Shanghai index stood at 3200 points again, but there was still a correction this week, and the individual stock sector showed a general downward trend. From the technical point of view, the market trend has been repaired, but the overall fluctuation is still large, and the medium-term trend has not been completely reversed. However, it should also be noted that the meeting of the financial committee has significantly improved market confidence and continued fermentation, thus affecting the future market performance. As the external risk factors are gradually fully priced by the market, driven by the stability of China’s fundamentals, the continuous efforts of the steady growth policy, the expected warming of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction and the continuous fermentation of the spirit of the meeting of the financial committee, the market will gradually enter the medium and long-term layout stage, and the medium and long-term is expected to usher in the opportunity of stabilizing step by step. Pay attention to the change of volume and energy and the rotation of sectors, and pay attention to the opportunities in finance, real estate, steel, medicine and biology, food and beverage, building materials, building decoration, TMT and other industries.
Operation suggestions
It is suggested to pay attention to finance, real estate, steel, medicine and biology, food and beverage, building materials, building decoration, TMT and other industries.
Risk tips:
Escalation of trade friction; Deterioration of overseas epidemic situation; Sudden changes in the external environment.
