Key investment points:
The FSC stabilized its expectations and the market recovered significantly.
In the past two days, after the special meeting of the financial committee answered several major issues most concerned by the current market and expressed firm support for steady growth, market sentiment has significantly warmed up. We believe that the market rebound is expected to continue due to the expected improvement, policy force, low valuation and loose liquidity.
Main line 1: the first quarterly report exceeded the expectations of industries and individual stocks
The growth rate of performance forecast in the first quarter exceeded 50%, mainly concentrated in the upstream chemical industry, nonferrous metals and electronics, communications, computers, national defense and military industry, medicine and biology in the growth sector. From January to February, the monthly business report shows that the following industries perform well: 1) low-carbon drives new energy related companies to maintain high prosperity, including new energy vehicle industry chain and new energy power such as photovoltaic and nuclear power; 2) Upstream price increases, such as rare metals, some chemical raw materials and chemicals, coal, copper and other related companies; 3) TMT industrial chain and semiconductor industry still maintain a high outlook. In addition, digitization has made the performance of some computer companies brilliant; 4) In terms of consumption, CXO orders maintained a high boom; The demand for dairy products after stable diseases is stable, and the demand for high-end white milk is high. The secondary Baijiu liquor is better.
Main line 2: import substitution is expected to continue to benefit
The game between China and the United States continues, geopolitical conflicts continue, and industrial chain security is still the biggest rigid demand. On the whole, we sorted out the domestic substitution opportunities in the following key areas or areas with high import dependence: for example, in agriculture, strategic sub sectors such as seeds and agricultural machinery, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , some areas with high import dependence such as soybeans, palm oil and sugar; Iron ore and high-end special steel in iron and steel; Carbon fiber in the field of materials; Chip design, semiconductor materials and equipment in the electronic industry; Operating system and industrial software in computer industry; Industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , high-power lasers, high-end bearings, high-end CNC machine tools, etc. in mechanical equipment; High temperature alloys, aeroengines, marine equipment, special ships, aeroengines, etc. in military industry; In the field of electrical equipment, industrial automation control, new energy equipment manufacturing, etc. (main bearing, IGBT, control system, high voltage DC submarine cable); Optical modules and high-end sensors in the field of communication.
Main line 3: oversold stocks and related industry opportunities
Recently, with the gradual decline of the market, the increase and repurchase of industrial capital has accelerated, which shows the company’s confidence in its own business development in the future. From the perspective of valuation level, the median value of PE in many industries has been at the lowest 5% quantile level in the past decade, including coal, petroleum and petrochemical, steel, light industry manufacturing, textile and clothing, etc. measured by the price to book ratio Pb, the median value of non bank finance, communication, environmental protection, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, banking, architectural decoration and other industries has also been at the lowest 20% quantile level in the past decade, with outstanding cost performance.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks; Steady growth is less than expected; Geopolitical conflicts intensified.
