In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the downward trend of the number of new cases in the world has slowed down, and it will take time for the epidemic situation to be all-round. In terms of economy, the US inflation level has further improved, the suppression of high inflation on Residents' consumption expectations has continued to strengthen, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan has reached a new low, and the slowdown of retail growth month on month in February is worthy of attention; The economic expectation of the eurozone was greatly frustrated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In March, the ZEW Economic Climate Index fell sharply to - 38.7, and the recovery of just improved confidence was reversed. In terms of policy, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March announced an interest rate increase of 25bp without suspense, officially opening the path of interest rate increase; As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine brought uncertainty to the global economy, the Federal Reserve lowered economic growth and raised inflation expectations; For the future policy path, most members believe that interest rates need to be raised six times again. At the press conference after the meeting, Powell further said that if inflation exceeds expectations, it is expected to accelerate the progress of interest rate increase, and the interest rate meeting in May will start to shrink the table.
In terms of China's environment, the financial credit data in February was far lower than expected, and there was an extremely rare net decrease in medium and long-term loans in the residential sector. On the one hand, it showed the sluggish real estate sales, on the other hand, it also triggered speculation on the active leverage reduction of the residential sector. However, considering the disturbance of the epidemic, the willingness of the residential sector to expand credit remains to be seen. The macroeconomic operation data from January to February generally exceeded market expectations, but the data such as real estate commencement are still under obvious pressure, and the record high unemployment rate of people aged 16-24 also shows the structural pressure in the field of employment. Therefore, the demand for steady growth is still strong, and it is too early for the so-called policy to be tolerant. This week, the gold stability meeting gave a clear response to important concerns, emphasizing that "monetary policy should take the initiative to respond, and new loans should maintain a moderate growth". There is no doubt about the policy's attitude towards stabilizing demand and credit. With the gradual development of leniency finance, leniency credit is expected to be further demonstrated, and the structural data is expected to continue to improve.
In terms of high-frequency data, downstream, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index continued to rise. In the middle reaches, steel prices fell slightly, while cement prices stopped falling and rebounded. In the upstream, coal prices generally weakened, and non-ferrous metal prices fell to varying degrees. Among them, aluminum and zinc prices fell significantly, precious metal prices peaked and fell, and crude oil prices fell sharply.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
