The real estate industry needs to solve the financing dilemma as soon as possible. (1) From the perspective of real estate investment, the financing end of the real estate industry has become the main restrictive factor for the continuous improvement of real estate investment, and the pressure on the financing end of real estate enterprises has become the main factor for the expansion of the decline in the growth rate of new construction since this year. In the future, if there is no significant improvement in front-end sales, back-end loans and bond financing of real estate, new construction may continue to decline under pressure. (2) The "correction" of the financing policy for real estate enterprises has been started since October 2021, and the policy signal of improving the financing end centered on meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate has been frequently released. However, from the growth rate of loans in the real estate industry in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the financing of real estate credit bonds in the first quarter of 2022, the financing dilemma of the real estate industry has not been broken. (3) In the first quarter of 2022, the financing of real estate credit bonds has not been improved, and it will take time to repair the financing environment. Looking forward to 2022, as much as 54.631 billion yuan of real estate credit bonds will expire in July. The financing pressure may lead to the liquidity pressure of some real estate enterprises to ensure debt repayment.
The real estate industry still needs more policies to resolve the financing pressure. (1) From the supply side, "implementing policies for the city" will expand the support of real estate financing policies and alleviate the pressure of real estate liquidity. The supply side financial support policies aimed at resolving industry risks may be introduced in more regions. (2) From the demand side, promote sales collection and stabilize the cash flow of real estate enterprises. Relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, encouraging inventory of real estate projects and other demand side policies may also be more actively implemented according to the city under the urgency of resolving the risks of the real estate industry. (3) From the policy side, financial policies support areas with high inventory pressure and actual demand for shed reform, or increase the monetization of shed reform to stimulate the recovery of real estate demand. For some areas with high inventory pressure and urgent actual demand for shed reform, the monetization policy of shed reform may become an important means to stimulate the recovery of local house purchase demand and stabilize economic growth. In this process, the mortgage supplementary loan (PSL) is launched or continues to provide liquidity support at the level of financial policy. (4) From the perspective of the transformation of the new development model, whether it is the simultaneous development of affordable rental housing and rental and sale, or real estate operation and services, the new development model of the real estate industry ultimately depends on the transformation of micro real estate enterprises. In order to resolve the debt pressure and liquidity risk of real estate enterprises in the short term and ensure the main body of industry development, it is to realize the transformation of the industry in the medium and long term. In this process, it is necessary to expand the market scale of infrastructure REITs, distinguish different projects such as development and operation, and provide liquidity support such as financing.
Risk tips: (1) the epidemic situation hinders the real estate sales of "offline mode"; (2) The promotion of financial support policies for the real estate industry was less than expected; (3) The default in the real estate industry exceeded expectations.
