[strategic view]
Review of 2021: the CSI 300 index ranked lower among the stock indexes of major global markets in 2021. However, the median return of individual stocks in the A-share market is better than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the return of common stock funds also outperforms that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300
A-share view: (1) in the short term, it is relatively optimistic about the market in the first quarter. According to the summary of the history of a shares, A-Shares have a high probability of rising after new year's day and during the Spring Festival, reflecting the calendar effect. At present, China's macro policy is friendly. After the Federal Reserve decided to speed up taper in December, it is unlikely to further introduce more hawkish measures in Q1 2022. (2) In the long run, the current valuation level of A-Shares is not high. The position of China's comprehensive national strength continues to improve all over the world; And the trend of Chinese funds moving from the property market to the stock market remains unchanged; Therefore, the probability of long-term profit of A-Shares in this position is high.
Views of Hong Kong stocks: (1) in the short term, the Hong Kong stock market is more directly affected by the tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The trend is expected to be temporarily weaker than that of a shares. (2) In the long run, Hong Kong stocks have entered a significant investment value range, and ah share premium is also at an all-time high. From a long-term perspective, the long-term profit probability of investment in this location is very high.
Recommended industries: (1) new energy industry chain. Reason: the industry will maintain a high outlook in 2022; In line with the new direction of double carbon and specialization. The risk lies in whether the industrial capacity expansion speed can match the growth rate of downstream demand. (2) Military industry chain. Reason: the industry is weakly affected by macro economy; Maintain high scenery in 2022; In line with the new direction of specialization. (3) The semiconductor industry chain is mainly optimistic about some semiconductor materials (such as SiC) and equipment. Reason: maintain a high view in 2022; In line with the new direction of specialization. (4) Some consumer segments. Reason: benefiting from product price increase and cost reduction, the outlook in 2022 is expected to rise steadily; In line with the direction of common prosperity. (5) Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Reason: the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to improve, and the prosperity will hit the bottom in the second half of 2022.
[risk tips]
(1) Epidemic control was less than expected
(2) The time point of global monetary tightening is ahead of schedule, or the tightening intensity is higher than expected.
