Interest rate debt: pay attention to opportunities in the early stage and guard against risks in the second half of the year. 1) Looking back on 2021, the economy was weak and the currency was loose. The bond market came out of the slow bull market and showed a “new normal” of low volatility as a whole. 2) In the early stage of 2022, there will be great downward pressure on the economy, the monetary policy may reduce reserve requirements and interest rates, and the macro environment is still favorable to the bond market; In the second half of the year, the risk factors faced by the bond market increased. The stabilization of economic and financial data, the rise of pig prices led to the recovery of CPI, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, etc. there was a certain callback pressure on the bond market. However, the economy is going down, housing and housing are not fried for a long time, asset shortage is still in, and the bond market will continue to be a slow bull for a long time. 3) At present, the downward pressure of the economy is still on, the demand for real financing is still weak, and the power of investment and production expansion is insufficient. Reducing the cost of real financing is the premise of “wide credit” and “stable growth”, and the net interest margin of banks is still low, so it is still necessary to broaden the currency. 4) According to the statement of the fourth quarter regular meeting of the central bank, monetary policy tools will still play the dual function of “total amount + structure” in 2022. It is possible to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates by total amount, while structural tools such as small refinancing for agricultural support, carbon emission reduction support tools and clean refinancing for coal are the main focus. 5) Early next year, especially in the first quarter, the core trading logic of the bond market may lie in the game of wide credit and wide currency expectation. With the promotion of the credit easing policy, credit may also make a good start in 2022. If the economy shows signs of temporary stabilization at the same time, it may form a phased impact on the bond market under the resonance of economy and credit. 6) In 2022, the policy orientation of “holding pressure” and local tight credit status will continue, and the logic of “structural asset shortage” may continue to deduce, but there is a possibility of marginal improvement in the supply-demand gap. 7) In 2022, the Federal Reserve is about to enter the interest rate increase cycle. Disturbed by the epidemic and other factors, once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in advance, the Central Bank of China will probably wait and see in the short term. At this stage, China’s policy is “I-oriented” and there is little pressure on “protecting the exchange rate”. Therefore, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase is more a constraint on China’s loose space, and it is highly likely that it will not lead to the reversal of China’s policy, However, the possibility of China’s easing will also decline, further compressing the easing window period of the central bank’s monetary policy, which is not conducive to the opening of the downward space of China’s interest rate. 8) Under the influence of multiple factors such as the epidemic, cross cycle adjustment and the decline of labor force population, it is difficult for the potential economic growth to return to the pre epidemic level, so it is difficult for the 10-year Treasury bond yield to return to the previous high, and the high point of long-term interest rate shows a downward trend.
Credit Debt: the overall credit risk is controllable and the market differentiation continues. 1) Looking back on the credit bond market in 2021, the overall contraction of primary issuance, local tight credit led to difficulties in issuing industrial bonds and intensified regional differentiation of urban investment; The overall interest margin of the secondary market narrowed, with obvious grade differentiation. The short-term, medium and high-grade interest margin was at a historical low, while the long-term and low-grade interest margin remained high; The default was relatively stable, but the default tide of private enterprises continued, and the rating center of the first defaulting entity also increased significantly. 2) Under the goal of risk prevention policy and the demand of maintaining stability in the new year, the overall credit risk in 2022 is controllable, but the tail risk still needs to be prevented, and the market continues to be divided. 3) In the future, with the continuous and orderly advancement of the net worth process of financial products, the market’s preference for short-term and high-grade varieties may be further improved, and the interest margin of low-grade, long-term and private placement varieties will face widening pressure. 4) Considering that the new credit rating regulations require the rating system to be adjusted before the end of 2022, there may be a wave of rating downgrades in the second half of 2022, especially from July to August, and some entities may face the risk of valuation fluctuation.
Urban investment bonds: explore theme opportunities under the pattern of differentiation. 1) Under the regulatory tone of “stability first and stability first”, the probability of systemic default risk of urban investment is small. However, considering the continuation of the tone of strict supervision of urban investment, the superposition of the cold impact of the land market on local finance, the risk preference of weak qualified urban investment may further decline, and the tail risk of urban investment will increase. 2) Excessive credit sinking and prolonging the duration are not recommended; It is suggested to avoid tail urban investment with high regional debt ratio, high short-term maturity pressure, high dependence on non-standard financing, great difficulty in financial self balance and serious dependence on land transfer income. 3) Areas with stable fiscal revenue and strong debt control ability can be appropriately sunk, especially the district and county level platform with stable fiscal revenue; We can pay attention to the weak regional core urban investment with less debt pressure; Focus on thematic investment opportunities that may be brought by policies such as affordable housing construction, urban renewal and hidden debt resolution.
Industrial debt: pay attention to the high-profile industrial opportunities in the upstream. 1) Pay attention to the opportunities of high-profile industries in the middle and upper reaches. The coal and steel industries maintain high-profile industries, and the tail risk of the industry is relatively controllable. It can be considered to sink in a short period of time or appropriately lengthen the duration of medium and high levels. In addition, pay attention to the opportunities of weak qualified subjects who benefit from the integration of the steel industry. 2) The middle and downstream industries still face the dual pressure of cost and demand. The cash flow of some industries is poor and the differentiation may continue. In particular, the downstream industries need to be vigilant against the risk of decline in the real estate chain.
Real estate debt: the “virtuous circle” target focuses on the head, and the tail risk exposure may continue. 1) The policy emphasizes the “virtuous circle”, and the main line of holding pressure still exists. The head real estate enterprises, especially the central state-owned enterprises, can further improve the industry concentration by virtue of good credit qualification and low financing cost. 2) The clearing of real estate debt will continue, the differentiation of credit qualification will further intensify, and the risk exposure of tail real estate enterprises is expected to continue. 3) The incremental allocation of real estate bonds, especially the real estate bonds of private enterprises, must wait until there are obvious trading opportunities on the right, and we need to pay attention to the inflection point of obvious improvement in financing and sales of real estate enterprises.
Risk tip: monetary policy is less loose than expected; Wider credit than expected; The decline of real estate is less than expected; The economic recovery rate exceeded expectations; The implicit debt of local government is resolved beyond expectation; Pig price rise and CPI rise exceeded expectations; The Fed raised interest rates at a faster pace than expected.
