In the fourth quarter of 2021, the policy context focused on "steady growth". First, increase the support of the capital market for scientific and technological innovation; Second, monetary policy will release warmth. The first half of 2022 will be a window period for loose monetary policy; Third, the idea of preventing and resolving financial risks remains unchanged, and the policy expression of the real estate industry has been adjusted to maintain market expectations.
First, in the capital market, the full implementation of the registration system is gradually approaching, and private equity investment has received strong policy support. In December, the central economic work conference first proposed the "full implementation of the stock issuance registration system". It is expected that the capital market reform in 2022 will take the full registration system as the main line. We believe that the full implementation of the registration system has four main effects: first, further unblock enterprise financing channels; Second, the trading system of each sector will tend to be unified, and the activity of sector trading will be rebalanced; Third, the absorption of market funds is limited. On the one hand, it is due to the large market value and asset scale of listed companies on the main board, and relatively few companies meet the listing conditions on the main board. On the other hand, it is relatively difficult for large enterprises to be listed. Whether they are listed or not depends more on the listing intention than the listing threshold. Fourth, further reduce the game attribute of the market. The decline in the scarcity of new shares means that the rate of return on new shares will be reduced, and the breaking of listed companies will increase. In the future, investors need to identify high-quality and high-quality companies, and the investment attribute of market value will be further raised. Secondly, in the fourth quarter, the policy encouraged financial institutions to increase their support for scientific and technological innovation enterprises through equity investment, including relaxing the restrictions on equity investment of insurance enterprises and improving the secondary market trading mechanism of equity investment funds. In the future, the exit channels of equity investment funds will be more smooth.
Second, in the fourth quarter, monetary policy released loose signals, cut reserve requirements and interest rates, and maintained market expectations. From the launch of the central bank's carbon emission reduction support tool to the deletion of "managing the general monetary gate" in the monetary policy implementation report in the third quarter, and then the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates in December, the central bank's monetary policy margin has become loose. It is expected that the first half of 2022 will be the window period of marginal easing of monetary policy, the tone of the whole year is still stable, and the interest rate shock center of 10Y treasury bonds is expected to move lower than that in 2021, At present, the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds has broken below 2.8%. However, at present, the economic recovery outside China is mismatched, and the market has some differences on the degree of liquidity easing. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the compliance between the easing policy and market expectations.
Third, it is expected that the stability of the real estate market will be maintained, the transition period of new asset management regulations will end, and the net worth transformation of bank financial management will accelerate. Preventing financial risks is an important part of steady growth. Since September 2021, the credit risk of real estate enterprises has been released rapidly, and some leading real estate enterprises also began to show great capital chain pressure. Among the 16 credit bond issuers that defaulted for the first time in 2021, the number of real estate development enterprises accounted for 1 / 4. In this regard, in the fourth quarter, various ministries and commissions successively released the signal of supporting the bottom of real estate policies. Specific measures include maintaining market expectations to prevent the spread of credit risks of some real estate enterprises, encouraging financial institutions to create a good financing environment for project mergers and acquisitions between real estate enterprises. At the same time, many places began to introduce house purchase subsidy policies and speed up the policy deployment of affordable housing. The industry is expected to improve. In addition, 2021 is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations. At present, the bank's financial net worth transformation has been well completed, and the net worth proportion has exceeded 80% by 2021q3. From an individual perspective, the net worth transformation of urban and rural commercial banks has been basically completed, and there is still some pressure on large banks and joint-stock banks.
Risk tips: 1) accelerated release of real estate risks; 2) Financial supervision is stronger than expected; 3) Fluctuations in overseas capital markets have increased.
