Since December, the latest progress of monetary policy has reflected the signs of strength of structural monetary policy: the central bank also announced the refinancing interest rate to the outside world on December 7 after the comprehensive reduction of reserve requirements on December 6. Since December 7, the three-month, six-month and one-year interest rates for supporting agriculture and small loans have been reduced by 0.25 percentage points. On December 15, Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council. First, the support tool for the deferred repayment of principal and interest of Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loans was transformed into the support tool for Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans. Second, from 2022, the Pratt & Whitney small and micro credit loans were included in the management of the support plan for agriculture and small re loans. The original 400 billion yuan re loan amount used to support Pratt & Whitney small and micro credit loans can be used on a rolling basis, If necessary, the amount of re loan can be further increased. On December 23, the business management department of the people's Bank of China held a credit working meeting of major banks under its jurisdiction to redeploy the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools and the special refinancing policy for clean and efficient utilization of coal. On December 27, the fourth quarter working meeting of the central bank pointed out that we should give full play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools. Structural monetary policy tools should actively "add" and make accurate efforts.
Looking back on 2021: the force of refinancing is relatively limited. In 2021, several refinancing lines are not too high, including 200 billion to support provinces with slow credit issuance, 300 billion to support small and micro enterprises, and 200 billion to support clean coal. From the historical data, in the balance sheet of the central bank from 2016 to 2021, the net investment of PSL + refinancing and rediscount was 1031.7 billion, 770.6 billion, 876.4 billion, 179.1 billion, 661.2 billion and - 331.1 billion respectively (the first three quarters of 2021). In 2020, when the epidemic was the most serious, the net investment of PSL + refinancing and rediscount was 661.2 billion, which turned negative in 2021.
We expect that the refinancing will play a more important role in 2022, with a total new amount of 100 billion: the central bank has added 200 billion new coal new energy refinancing line in Q4 of 2021. This year, the central bank may create a total of 1 trillion green refinancing rediscount tools, and then accumulate 400 billion refinancing for small and micro enterprises (but this 400 billion is rolling, indicating that it will also expire in 2022. We will not count it into the calculation of overall new refinancing). A total of 1.2 trillion new refinancing will be added in Q4 and 2022. According to the rhythm of refinancing in 2020221, we estimate that the total amount of refinancing maturity in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the whole year of 2022 is between 340 billion yuan and 1100 billion yuan. Considering that the monetary policy is 7, it will bring a pressure drop between 2380 billion yuan and 7700 billion yuan to the social finance stock. At the same time, we consider the net recovery of about 584.3 billion PSL next year. On the whole, even in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 2022, a total of 1.2 trillion refinancing rediscount line was added, taking into account the currency multiplier of 7. Assuming that the macro leverage ratio at the end of the year is basically maintained at the average level of the first three quarters, our calculation shows that the stock of social finance at the end of 2021 is 305 trillion, and the net investment of refinancing and rediscount plays a pulling role in social finance between - 1.12% and 0.63%. The actual value may be slightly higher than this value because 400 billion can be rolled to support loans to small and micro enterprises. After the central economic work conference, we slightly raised our judgment on the growth rate of social finance in 2022, mainly between 10.5% - 11%, most likely about 10.6%.
