Macro categories:
The ADP data of the United States in December far exceeded market expectations. In the middle of December, when the epidemic was the most frequent, the U.S. job market still maintained a good momentum, indicating that the overseas economy still has a certain resilience. However, after the data were released, the US dollar index fell sharply, and the market performance of precious metals rose instead of falling was also in line with the expectation of raising interest rates mentioned earlier.
Following the stabilization of credit data in November, the land acquisition of national real estate in the latest December decreased by only about 16% year-on-year, which was significantly improved compared with the previous year-on-year halving data, and China’s “bottom of demand” was beginning to dawn. We expect that the real estate construction cycle will gradually stabilize and improve in the first quarter of this year. Considering the pre development force of infrastructure (about 500 billion yuan will be invested every month from January to March last year, while few special bonds will be invested from January to March last year) and the dual width pattern of currency and finance in the first quarter, we believe that domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) should not be too short, Can choose the opportunity to bargain long.
The US dollar index has been fluctuating in the range in the past month. We believe that the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the next two months, which is conducive to emerging market stock indexes. First, the continuous deterioration of the overseas epidemic will suppress the US economic expectation. On January 4, there were 2.179 million newly confirmed cases of covid-19 in the world, including 570000 in the United States and 1.13 million in Europe, What is more worrying is that the peak of the new curve will not be seen until at least mid and late January; The second is the peak and fall of the expectation of US interest rate increase. The high base drives the peak and fall of US inflation, and the economy and employment are less than expected, which are expected to drive the subsequent peak and fall of the expectation of US interest rate increase. We expect that interest rate will be increased only once in 2022.
Generally speaking, under the background of monetary marginal loosening, we are relatively friendly to China’s stock index. We continue to be optimistic about China’s stock index from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year; In terms of commodities, the signal of China’s “bottom of demand” is gradually clear. We can pay attention to the opportunities of domestic demand industrial products highly related to real estate and infrastructure construction. The current trend of external demand industrial products (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals) is not clear. On the one hand, it faces the risk of demand impact caused by overseas epidemic, on the other hand, there is still a gap between supply and demand of natural gas in Europe, Electricity prices still rely on natural gas supply in the short term.
Strategy (strength ranking): bargain hunting and multi matching of the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC); Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) can still be matched on bargain hunting; National debt, industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals) and neutral precious metals;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
