Core summary
It is estimated that the real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 3.9% year-on-year, and the bottom has appeared. In the future, macro-control will focus on steady growth. Around the setting tone of "implementing policies to promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to the city", it is expected to introduce more policies to stabilize commercial housing sales and restore the confidence of developers; The price of upstream bulk commodities is adjusted. With the support of equipment renewal demand, manufacturing investment is expected to continue to rise in the short term; The proliferation of overseas Omicron and the strengthening of control by many governments will prolong the boom time of China's exports. Due to the lack of satisfactory projects and local epidemics in many places, the pace of infrastructure and consumption restoration was slow in the fourth quarter of 2021. If China's major projects were accelerated and the epidemic situation in China was controlled in the first quarter of 2022, they will continue to recover. Policy constraints on industrial production have been relaxed, and short-term industrial production is expected to continue to maintain a high outlook.
1. GDP: it is estimated that the actual GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be 3.9% year-on-year, which is the low point in recent years. The annual GDP was 8.1% year-on-year, with an average of 5.1% year-on-year in the two years.
2. Industrial added value: it is expected to increase by 3.9% year-on-year in the current month. First, driven by energy supply guarantee, the added value of mining industry and public utilities is expected to rise year-on-year. Second, from the PMI of the Bureau of statistics, after the upstream commodity price adjustment, manufacturing enterprises have increased procurement and production.
3. Fixed asset investment: it is estimated that the annual cumulative growth rate in 2021 will be 4.9% year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years will be 3.9%. In terms of real estate investment, although the funds of developers are still tight at present, under the combined efforts of accelerating the issuance of housing loans, the completion cycle of real estate investment and the requirements of "guaranteed delivery", the completed amount of real estate investment in a single month in December 2021 is expected to continue to pick up year-on-year. In terms of manufacturing investment, the significant adjustment of upstream commodity prices helps to accelerate the release of equipment renewal demand. In terms of infrastructure investment, the "weak supply and demand" of PMI in the construction industry in December 2021 may be affected not only by short-term factors such as the cold wave cooling weather and the proximity of the "two festivals", but also by the insufficient satisfactory projects and the less than expected progress of physical workload formation.
4. Total retail sales of social consumer goods: it is expected to increase by 3.7% year-on-year in the current month. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of China's automobile retail will continue to narrow in December 2021, and the year-on-year slowdown of oil and products sales. Considering the local outbreaks in Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang and Shaanxi in December 2021, the national catering revenue may continue to decline year-on-year. In general, the power of retail repair of social consumer goods is insufficient.
5. Import and export: the import is expected to increase by 24.0% and the export by 21.0% year-on-year. In terms of import, the manufacturing PMI import index of the Bureau of statistics continued to rise in the fourth quarter of 2021, which may be related to the expansion of production by enterprises after China's energy supply guarantee, thus increasing the import demand of raw materials. In terms of export, the number of newly confirmed cases in overseas covid-19 exceeded 2 million, and many governments strengthened control, which will prolong the boom time of China's export.
6. Price: CPI is expected to be 1.8% and PPI 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of CPI, the average wholesale price of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in December 2021 decreased by 2.4% month on month. From the perspective of high-frequency indicators, pork prices may have peaked in the short term. The PMI sales price index of the service industry is 47.6, a new low since June 2020. Local epidemics have broken out in many places, and the pressure of price rise in the service industry may ease in the short term. In terms of PPI, according to the correlation between manufacturing PMI ex factory price index and PPI month on month, it is estimated that the PPI in December 2021 is 11.1% year-on-year, and the scissors difference with CPI continues to converge year-on-year.
7. Finance: it is estimated that the new credit will be 1250 billion, the new social finance will be 235 billion, the stock social finance will be 10.3% year-on-year, and M2 will be 8.6% year-on-year. The policies of stabilizing the property market in various places seem to have achieved initial results. It is expected that the medium and long-term loans of new residents will continue to exceed the seasonality. Despite the accelerated approval of corporate loans, from the point of view that the discount rate of one month state-owned bank notes once dropped to near zero in late December 2021, the current credit demand of the corporate sector is still insufficient. It is estimated that in December 2021, the financing of government bonds + corporate bonds based on social finance may be about 1050 billion.
