Main points
Employment improved more than expected, the economy continued to improve, and the debt was reduced as planned
The newly released us ADP non farm employment data jumped month on month, once the best situation since the recovery. Employment in the service industry has picked up, e-commerce employment has increased significantly, transportation service employment has increased significantly, and the supply bottleneck may be relatively improved. Wholesale and retail employment decreased significantly, indirectly indicating that there is still room for improvement in consumer demand.
Inflation is still difficult to improve in the short term
The supply bottleneck is still difficult to improve in the short term, and inflation is expected to fall in the first half of 2022.
There are differences in the normalization of monetary policy
The Federal Reserve has differences on the choice of policy tools, tightening time and intensity of monetary policy normalization. Pay attention to the trend of yield curve and the fluctuation trend of financial market.
The capital market fluctuates, and the rhythm of short-term interest rate increase will not exceed expectations
In terms of economic situation, the US economy has stabilized in the recovery stage. If the impact effect of the epidemic is flat, the economic growth and employment situation will gradually approach the potential level; The easing of supply chain bottlenecks still depends on the recovery of supply capacity and the trend of the epidemic. The problem of rising energy prices is expected to be relatively improved in early 2022. Therefore, the process and speed of raising interest rates depend on the uncertainty of the above situation. In general, the monetary easing policy during the epidemic period will gradually withdraw, the economic growth will recover and stabilize, the inflation level will tend to improve, and the monetary policy will enter a new stage. The normalization rhythm mainly depends on the recovery of the financial system, that is, the recovery process of the monetary multiplier.
Risk statement
Inflation rises too fast; The epidemic situation is repeated.
