Key points:
event:
In mid December, the PMI index of mining and manufacturing industry recorded 50.3, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; Non manufacturing PMI recorded 52.7, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; In December, the composite PMI index recorded 52.2, unchanged from the previous month.
Supply constraints eased but demand remained weak
In mid December, the PMI index of mining and manufacturing industry recorded 50.3, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was on the boom and bust line for two consecutive months. Since the fourth quarter, the momentum of manufacturing expansion has shown a recovery trend, ending the continuous downward trend from March to October. From the perspective of policy, it is conducive to the recovery of the momentum of the overall manufacturing industry. On the one hand, the signal of steady growth is constantly released. On the other hand, the production and power restriction caused by dual control of energy consumption was greatly alleviated in the fourth quarter to avoid short-term long-term policies. The value of new orders for finished products decreased to the lowest point in the year, reflecting the phenomenon of passive inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry due to weak demand.
The real estate and epidemic dragged down the prosperity of non manufacturing industries
Although the PMI of the construction industry recorded 56.3, which is on the line of prosperity and decline, it is still weak compared with the same period before the epidemic. This is related to the overall cold of the real estate industry since this year. The data of the real estate industry show an obvious downward trend from real estate development investment, new construction, sales to land acquisition. We believe that under the framework of “no speculation in housing, housing and housing”, there may be limited relaxation of industrial regulatory policies to stabilize growth. The service industry is also weaker than that in the same period before the epidemic. The epidemic in Xi’an and other areas may affect offline consumption activities during the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, thus dragging down the performance of non manufacturing industry in February.
Short term factors are mixed
In the short term, the external factors affecting the economy are mixed. At the policy level, since December, the management has fully conveyed the intention of stabilizing growth. In terms of fiscal policy, “all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced”, which is conducive to the gradual upward growth of infrastructure investment, so as to boost the performance of PMI index of construction industry. Monetary policy also has room for further easing in aggregate, providing a good credit environment for the further upward growth of manufacturing investment (on a two-year average basis). On the other hand, the short-term policy requirements for environmental protection and “double carbon” may not be relaxed soon. Under the background of weak demand, the repair trend on the supply side may continue for some time. At the same time, the recurrence of the epidemic will also affect the performance of the traditional holiday service industry and drag down the social zero consumption.
Risk statement
Epidemic development exceeded expectations and inflation exceeded expectations
