Looking back on Wednesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and the stock index fell rapidly at the beginning of the session. Although the Shanghai index rebounded, it did not change the decline, while the gem index showed a pulse downward pattern all day, showing a panoramic view of the weak market.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the A-share market fell for two consecutive days after the festival, last year’s popular track became the hardest hit area . In combination with the peripheral markets, there was no significant fluctuation in the direction of new energy and green power, This adjustment is most likely related to the position adjustment of Chinese institutions , which is reflected in the high-low switching on the disk, dynamically adjusting the extreme market of last year, By incorporating cost-effective assets into the portfolio, the pig cycle, game and epidemic damaged industries have performed well recently, which may be related to these factors.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the Shanghai stock index opened low and went low, falling behind 3600 points. The market closed two consecutive negative points in the beginning of the year, and the performance was slightly weak. The performance of semiconductors, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles in the high boom track continued to be sluggish, and the rotation rhythm of the plate was accelerated. However, the trading of the two markets remained active, and the northward capital continued to flow in. Although the central bank’s open market had a net return of 200 billion yuan, However, the low capital interest rate shows that the capital side is still relatively abundant, it is expected that the market is expected to stabilize in repeated shocks, and pay attention to the change of volume energy and plate rotation . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, TMT and other industries.
In addition, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that there was a sharp decline for two consecutive days at the beginning of the new year, which aroused market concern and concern. Overall, the main reasons for this wave of adjustment are: 1) institutional capital balance structure and position adjustment . Recently, the market industry and sector have rotated rapidly, and the willingness of institutional capital balance structure has increased significantly, which was reflected in the market years ago.
In the new year, with the reduction of assessment pressure, institutions, especially some funds with positions concentrated in hot sectors, will be slightly radical in position adjustment operation to catch up with the progress and quickly reduce risk exposure. Although the market also fell sharply yesterday, the decline was mainly concentrated in heavyweights with heavy institutional positions, and 3309 stocks rose against the trend.
2) recently, US bond interest rates continued to soar , and US stocks and technology stocks fell sharply at night, which also suppressed the Chinese market, especially Dianxin, military industry, semiconductor and other sectors with concentrated positions and high valuation.
3) capital level factors including IPO of China Mobile and reduction of reverse repurchase by the central bank also disturbed the market.
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the characteristics of the stock index’s shock readiness around 3600 points will continue. It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term consolidation of the gem around the annual line is more likely. investors are advised to focus on investment opportunities in household appliances, games, agricultural food and beverage industries in the short term, and continue to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued blue chips .
Guosheng Securities said that under the general stable tone of market liquidity, the short-term market may still be dominated by low absorption. We can actively pay attention to the current hot topics in the market, such as yuanuniverse, green power and covid-19 epidemic, and look for individual stock opportunities. Operationally, with the end of 2021, market may be able to open the industry valuation improvement expectation with clear annual report performance context, and can actively pay attention to the trading opportunities of individual stocks with clear growth expectation .
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that at present, the hot spots of A-Shares are scattered and the rotation of plates is intensified, but the strategic layout of main funds is clear. It kills and cashes out track stocks and makes up for undervalued varieties such as finance, real estate and consumption. The decline of track stocks also gives new funds the opportunity to build positions. At the same time, it appropriately participates in theme stocks to activate market popularity. The market performance before the Spring Festival is generally the same. looking forward to the first quarter, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. After all, the steady growth trend this year is clear, and the “economic bottom” may occur in the second quarter, which determines that the index will not have much room to fall, and the investment style will be further balanced .
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that after entering January, market will gradually enter the intensive period of annual report forecast, and those companies with high performance growth will naturally be widely concerned by the market. It is suggested to pay attention to companies in the high boom industrial chain and performance forecast stocks . Under the joint action of consumption recovery, full opening of cross cycle regulation and liquidity care, the economic probability will pick up in the first quarter, the monetary policy will release positive signals, credit is expected to continue to develop in spring, the policy growth attitude is clear, and the market risk preference is stable as a whole. Therefore, it is suggested to seize the opportunity with greater certainty in the year, The so-called plan of the year is spring .
The agency further mentioned that in terms of industry configuration, in the short term, it is more biased towards the value and undervalued value under the catalysis of policies, such as banks, securities companies, real estate, infrastructure, mass consumption, etc. After the adjustment, the technology sector can participate in the performance disclosure period and choose the business direction with high performance growth and appropriate cost performance. The current adjustment is also providing an opportunity for us to get on the bus .
Macroscopically, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that the opportunities in January of are greater than the risks, and the three factors of economy, liquidity and policy form a resonance . Among them, the valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and steady growth policy is the main driving force of spring agitation. The market probability will not repeat the adjustment in February last year. On the one hand, the core assets accelerated from January to February last year, but the prosperity was not high. On the other hand, the overall market valuation was at a high level at that time. After the market adjustment, some segments of growth have begun to have cost performance. In 2022, PEG dropped to less than 1, opening up room for rise for the subsequent spring agitation. From the follow-up deduction, the liquidity and steady growth policies in January have some interesting points. First, pay attention to the continuation of the 500 billion MLF in January. The first quarter is a window period for further easing of monetary policy, and we can expect to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates; Second, pay attention to the formulation of growth objectives and the layout of key tasks and investment projects at the local two sessions, which will form certain guidelines for the national two sessions.
In terms of operation strategy, the organization further analyzed that considered the allocation idea of high boom agglomeration + oversold marginal improvement . Under the environment of “weak economy + broad currency”, the growth sector has a good performance price ratio after adjustment. Two directions can be considered: one is the media, computer and other industries with good performance valuation matching; the other is to find a more definite direction along the deductive path of the industrial cycle, and pay attention to software development, it services and Subdivision fields such as optical image.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the value sector with oversold and deterministic performance in the early stage is mainly concentrated in consumption style. Among them, the year-on-year prediction of the performance of the food, beverage and household appliance industry in 2022 has significantly improved, has the momentum of valuation and repair, and has allocation value. in January, the preferred industries are electronics, media, national defense and military industry. In the short-term direction, you can also choose themes such as meta universe and digital currency with strong sustainability .
In addition, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that four main lines grasp the restless market, and growth is still the medium-term optimal allocation main line of the restless market . Main line 1. Short term growth style and rising anxiety, according to the rhythm of the growth market , after this benign adjustment, growth will also usher in a round of valuation driven main rising market, and liquidity will provide core support. After this benign adjustment, the optimal allocation opportunities will be more obvious, continue to pay attention to the “double carbon” direction of solar hydrogen storage, green power and new energy in the medium term, The mid and upper reaches of semiconductors, national defense and military industry, and diffusion to computers ; Main line 2: steady growth under the reinforcement of counter cyclical policies, pays attention to power operation, power station construction, transmission and distribution and the upstream and downstream of infrastructure real estate, such as building materials , which is more cost-effective in the transitional market; Main line 3, brokerage sector , as a wind vane of restless market in spring, rises with restless market; Main line 4, consumption follows the rise , mainly laying out opportunities along the price rise chain.
