Key investment points
Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries this week (March 7-march 11) were – 5.64% and – 7.91% respectively, ranking 26th and 31st respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by – 4.22%.
Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (March 7-march 11), the cumulative growth of tourism retail, airport, tourism and scenic spots, hotel catering was + 0.0%, – 7.0%, – 7.2%, – 11.7% respectively, ranking 11th, 118, 121 and 134 respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from March 5 to March 11, China reported 2072 local confirmed cases (562 last week), mainly in Tianjin, Jiangsu ( Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) ), Guangdong (Shenzhen, Dongguan), Shandong (Qingdao), Hebei (Xingtai, Cangzhou), Jilin (Jilin, Changchun), Gansu (Lanzhou), etc. 2) Global: from March 5 to March 11, there were about 10.51 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, with a month on month increase of + 2%; The number of deaths increased by 46373, a month on month increase of – 12%. As of March 11, 2022, there were about 450 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and about 6.05 million deaths worldwide. 3) United States: from March 5 to March 11, about 26 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, down 29% month on month; A total of 9558 deaths were added, down 15% month on month. As of March 11, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States was about 81.15 million and the cumulative death was about 990000. 4) UK: from March 5 to March 11, about 420000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the UK, up 31% month on month; A total of 735 new deaths were added, down 7% month on month. As of March 11, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the UK is about 1967 million and the cumulative death is about 160000.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of March 11, the country had reported about 3.19 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 4.69 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from March 5 to March 11, down 13.2% month on month. (2) Global: according to ourworldindata, as of March 12, covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated about 10.86 billion times worldwide, and about 63.5% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine. Residents can purchase antigen detection reagent and self-test covid-19, and continue to be firmly optimistic about the travel industry chain. On March 11, the medical administration and hospital administration of the National Health Commission posted the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), which has the advantages of strong timeliness, high convenience and relatively low cost.
Airport & aviation: passenger transport volume in February increased by 30.7% year-on-year
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from March 5 to March 11, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 7707, a year-on-year decrease of 38% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of + 39% and – 46% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and a month-on-month decrease of 19% last week.
2) aviation department: from March 5 to March 11, according to the data of flying standard, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 574, 1273, 1176, 327, 274 and 164 respectively, with the average of – 16%, – 17%, – 19%, – 23%, – 12% and – 5% respectively.
3) Airport: from March 5 to March 9, according to the data of flight control, the average daily takeoff and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 435, 426, 427, 815 and 284 respectively, up from – 7%, – 26%, – 13%, – 7% and – 22% respectively last week.
Tax exemption: the intensity of tax exemption and discount on outlying islands was the same month on month, and the income and net profit attributable to the parent company in the first two months of China tax exemption were + 20% year-on-year
1) flight volume tracking in Hainan: from March 5 to March 11, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 203 and 349 respectively, a decrease of 40% and 15% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 42423, a month on month decrease of 19.5%.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail was slightly weakened on a month on month basis, and the tax-free discount intensity of China free outlying islands, China travel investment, China development control and China export service outlying islands were basically the same on a month on month basis.
3) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) released the announcement of operating data from January to February 2022. The company achieved an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was about 18.3%, a year-on-year increase of 2.6pct, and a year-on-year increase of about 0.8pct after excluding the impact of income tax preference. We believe that it is mainly due to the relatively high proportion of individual tourists in Hainan during the peak tourism season from January to February, the recovery of China free Hainan universal discount to 85%, and the company began to ask for benefits from management and pay attention to the assessment of profit indicators this year.
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China’s transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%. 6) Recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of outlying island duty-free stores in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
