Event:
Today, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and the disk rose sharply in the afternoon. The CSI 300 index rose by more than 4%. At the industry level, non bank finance, power equipment and social services led the rise.
Key investment points:
There are four main reasons for the sharp rise in both A-share and Hong Kong stock markets today. First, today, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting and proposed that “relevant departments should actively introduce policies conducive to the market and carefully introduce contraction policies. They should respond in time to hot issues concerned by the market. Any policy that has a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations.” The market rose sharply in the afternoon catalyzed by the news; Second, according to Bloomberg, the US public company accounting oversight committee expressed its willingness to maintain cooperative relations with Chinese government departments and is maintaining active communication with Chinese regulators. The two sides are committed to reaching a cooperation agreement. Under this background, the stock market in the US stock market rebounded last night, and the Hong Kong stock market started a sharp rebound at the opening of today’s trading; Third, the oil price has fallen recently. The oil distribution price has continued to fall since it peaked on March 7 (US $139.13). Today, the opening price of oil distribution is less than US $100. Although it has rebounded in the session, it is still in a downward trend as a whole, and the market’s concern about stagflation is gradually alleviated; Fourth, the Fed’s interest rate hike is about to fall. Last night, the three major indexes of US stocks closed up. The S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones industrial index rose by 2.14%, 2.92% and 1.82% respectively.
The policy bottom is clear, and the market will usher in an oversold rebound. The rapid adjustment of the market since this year is essentially the result of the interweaving of a variety of negative factors. The network effect of information dissemination causes the stacking of bad news, resulting in the possibility of overshoot in the market. From the follow-up interpretation, it is almost certain that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25bp in mid March. After the interest rate increase is implemented, the Fed will adopt the monetary policy idea of “walking and watching”, and the most tense time of tightening expectations has passed. The time when the intensity of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was the highest has probably passed, and there are signs of easing the positions of all parties. The sanctions on Russian energy are in form rather than substance. The end of China’s policy appears, and the tone of protecting the market is clear. After the substantial adjustment in the early stage, the valuation level of the market has decreased significantly, and a good cost performance has emerged.
Oversold rebound preferred growth. The growth sector with sufficient adjustment in the early stage has begun to show its cost performance and good performance expectations. It focuses on the digital economy and new energy fields with strong industrial cycle catalysis, such as photovoltaic, energy storage, semiconductor, medicine and biology.
Risk tip: the situation in Russia and Ukraine worsened again, Sino US relations deteriorated, US monetary policy tightened more than expected, and the external market fell sharply.
