Macro categories:
At the Fed's interest rate meeting in March, the boots for raising interest rates finally landed, which was in line with market expectations as a whole. After the announcement of the meeting statement, the rise of US stocks fell for a time, then expanded the rise again, the decline of gold narrowed and turned to rise, and the yield of US bonds first rose and then fell, which is consistent with our analysis of the rebound of risk assets after the interest rate increase. For asset allocation, it is expected to usher in a wave of rebound window period of risky assets after the interest rate increase is implemented and before the interest rate meeting in May.
The release of multiple signals will reverse the pessimistic expectations before mid March. The special meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council responded to the hot and key issues concerned by the market, such as monetary policy, real estate, China concept shares, platform economy, etc. Dispel some concerns of investors. After the special meeting of the finance committee, a number of national departments made statements one after another to strengthen the expectation of stabilizing finance and steady growth. The release of the above official signals will effectively reverse the pessimistic expectations of the market. In addition, the meeting pointed out that we should earnestly revitalize the economy in the first quarter, take the initiative to respond to monetary policy, and maintain a moderate growth in new loans. Actively introduce policies favorable to the market and prudently introduce contractionary policies. The follow-up monetary policy is still worth looking forward to, which has significantly boosted the stock index.
In China, real estate financing was relatively weak in the first and middle of March, and the issuance of credit bonds and ABS of real estate enterprises was significantly depressed year-on-year, which reflected the lack of confidence of real estate enterprises. In addition, the issuance of new special bonds for infrastructure construction was less than 150 billion in the first and middle of March, and the performance before and after the two sessions was not satisfactory. However, according to the follow-up issuance plan, we expect to start a significant volume next week. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, we still need to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At the level of precious metals, the opportunity of bargain hunting will be grasped after the boots of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting are landed.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: cautious.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
