The upgrading of industrial institutions has been steadily promoted, with preferential policies and brilliant industrial performance
From January to February, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and industrial production accelerated. The growth rate was 3.2 percentage points higher than that in December 2021 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the two-year average growth rate in 2021.
“Carbon peaking, carbon neutralization”, high-end manufacturing and other key policy areas have performed well. The new energy industry developed rapidly, followed by new energy, with a year-on-year increase of 150.5%, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery output increased by 26.4% year-on-year; The high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 14.4% year-on-year, and the upgrading of industrial structure continued to advance steadily. The manufacturing purchasing manager index and the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities rebounded simultaneously.
Modern service industry leads the steady recovery of service industry
From January to February, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points higher than that in December 2021, and 1.8 percentage points lower than the average growth rate in the two years of 2021. The production index of information transmission, software and information technology service industry increased by 16.3% year-on-year, showing a high degree of recovery of the market. The business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal express, culture, sports and entertainment industries rose to more than 57.0%, with a higher boom range, and the activity of the service industry is expected to increase.
The growth of social demand and the upgrading of consumer products
From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, 5.0 percentage points higher than that in December 2021 and 2.8 percentage points higher than the average growth rate in the two years of 2021. The social demand for ordinary consumer goods increased, and the sales of upgraded goods increased rapidly.
Policies have been pushed forward, and investment in fixed assets and high-tech industries has increased rapidly
From January to February, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 5076.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, 7.3 percentage points higher than that in 2021 and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average growth rate in 2021. The steady growth policy has been pushed forward. From January to February, the investment in fixed assets increased significantly year-on-year, and the work of maintaining growth throughout the year has been pushed forward. The growth rate of investment in high-tech industries reached 34.4%, guiding the gradual optimization of industrial structure.
Imports and exports grew steadily, significantly driving the growth of the national economy
From January to February, the total import and export of goods was 6204.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and the trade surplus was 738.8 billion yuan. The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.9%, accounting for the largest proportion of the total export.
The employment situation is generally stable, and the surveyed unemployment rate is stable
From January to February, 1.63 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country. In February, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, the same as the same period last year.
CPI rose moderately, PPI rose back, and the scissors gap narrowed
From January to February, CPI increased by 0.9% and PPI increased by 8.9% year-on-year. Affected by the high base of pork prices last year, pork prices decreased by 42.0% year-on-year from January to February, which restrained the rise of CPI. The price rise of energy, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities is transmitted along the industrial chain, which has become the main factor for the rise of CPI and PPI. The ppi-cpi scissors gap narrowed and social production returned to a benign state.
External factors exacerbate the uncertainty of China’s economic growth
We expect that as pork gradually steps out of the decline cycle, the inhibitory effect of pork on the rise of CPI index will weaken, and with the rise of pork price, it will pull the CPI index in the second half of the year. The rise in the prices of crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities will be gradually transmitted to the downstream. The rise of PPI will drive the rise of CPI, and the inflationary pressure will further increase. In 2022, economic growth is under great pressure. The prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy make the national economy recover better than expected from January to February, and the policy factors are large. Under this background, the political uncertainty between China and the United States has a great impact on the global economic relations between China and the United States. This year, the pressure to maintain growth is still large, and it is expected that more vigorous measures to ensure growth will be introduced more likely.
Risk tips
The effect of policy implementation was not as expected, the epidemic situation deteriorated, international relations deteriorated, and local debt risks erupted intensively.
