Market view: a year's plan lies in spring
Supported by the recovery of consumption, the full opening of cross cycle regulation and liquidity care, the economic probability picked up in the first quarter. Monetary policy has shifted from structure to both aggregate and structure, releasing positive signals, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts, and credit is expected to continue in spring. The overall risk appetite is stable, and the attitude of policy steady growth is clearer. Therefore, it is suggested to actively grasp the most certain opportunities in the year and stick to the growth style in terms of configuration. In addition, the infrastructure and marginal improved real estate chain under steady growth, the securities business sector under the restlessness in spring and the consumer sector benefiting from the logic of price rise. In terms of economic growth, the "troika" is expected to resonate and support economic recovery. With the organic combination of policy cross cycle and counter cycle regulation, infrastructure investment is expected to pick up significantly in the first quarter, and the high prosperity of manufacturing investment and the slowdown of real estate investment will promote the slight pick-up of fixed investment. The probability of "local Chinese New Year" in 2022 Spring Festival is low. Returning home for the new year will strongly boost residents' consumption. Superimposed with low base effect, the social zero growth rate is expected to reach 6.1%. In the short term, the overseas demand remains strong, the price factor remains and other factors, and the export will still have a certain toughness. CPI is expected to hover at a low level, and the decline rate of PPI slows down. Overall, in the first quarter of 2022, consumption, fixed investment and export are expected to resonate to support the economic recovery, and the GDP growth is expected to reach 4.4%.
Pay equal attention to the total amount and structure, and welcome the liquidity to a good start in the first quarter. The policy has shifted from structure to both aggregate and structure, releasing positive signals, increasing the probability of interest rate reduction and making credit stronger in spring. In the first quarter, the possibility of lowering the MLF interest rate to drive the LPR interest rate is increasing. The scale of social financing and M2 are expected to be slightly higher than the nominal economic growth, which are expected to be 10.7% and 9.0% respectively. There is a possibility of further downward exploration of long-term interest rate, and micro liquidity continues to provide support.
In terms of risk appetite, the continuous implementation of counter cyclical steady growth policy will become the core support of the restless market, and the Federal Reserve taper will not have an impact. ① Economic growth has become the most concerned indicator of the decision-making level in the first half of 2022. ② In the 13 years since 2009, only in the spring of 2014, there has been no obvious market agitation, and there is a great probability of restless market in the spring. ③ At the current taper reduction rate, the Fed's monetary easing is still in the stage of gradual weakening in the first quarter of 2022, which will not have an impact on the risk appetite of A-Shares and US stocks.
Industry configuration: actively participate in the restless market in spring around four main lines
Main line 1: continue to be optimistic about the growth direction, including the upstream of "double carbon" green power, scenery hydrogen storage and new energy, the middle and upper reaches of semiconductors with improved prosperity, military industry, and the computer sector with style diffusion and easily driven by emotion. ① Since the RRR and interest rate cuts were implemented as scheduled in December, monetary easing has been continuously confirmed under the combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical adjustment, bringing marginal relaxation of liquidity and providing strong support for growth style. ② The expectation of steady growth is strengthened, with equal emphasis on the main lines of traditional and emerging industries. On the one hand, with the firm goal of "double carbon", the road map and policies of various industries are constantly clear. Building a modern energy system and building a new power system is the long-term development direction. On the other hand, the pace of fiscal policy is ahead of schedule, bringing new and old infrastructure to work together; ③ The deduction of growth style market will generally experience the three-stage drive of "valuation → performance → valuation". After the performance cashing and fourth quarter adjustment of this round of growth sector, with the support of liquidity, the probability will enter the third stage of valuation. Main line 2: building materials, real estate and its upstream and downstream under steady growth. The main force of short-term steady growth is still infrastructure and real estate. The real estate regulation policy has been marginal relaxed, and the better repair of investment and sales than pessimistic expectations is worthy of attention. Main line 3: Securities Companies in the restless spring. Securities companies are the wind vane of restlessness in spring, which needs attention. Main line 4: consumption mainly follows the rise, looking for opportunities along the main line of price rise, but it will not be the brightest plate.
Risk statement
The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; There is a deviation in China's economic forecast; China's policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated more than expected.
