Main views of overseas markets in a week: the three major indexes of US stocks rose and fell differently this week, and the performance of large US technology stocks was relatively weak. Since the beginning of December 2021, a number of large American technology giants have fallen significantly; Among them, adobe, saftez, NVIDIA and Xilinx fell by 15.35%, 10.82%, 9.98%, 9.14% and 7.19% respectively in December 2021. At present, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the S & P 500 information technology index are all in the last 20 years in addition to the second highest level in the Internet bubble era. U.S. technology stocks rose impulsively in the early stage of this round of economic recovery, with large cumulative increase and high valuation. There may be further pressure in the future. In addition, it should be noted that the two defensive industries in US stocks, S & P 500 essential consumption and S & P 500 utilities, rose by 9.36% and 9.95% respectively in December this year, significantly better than the core assets of US stocks, including information technology, biotechnology and non essential consumer industries, indicating a significant increase in market risk aversion in the near future. In addition, at this stage, the progress of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary liquidity has been significantly accelerated, and the possibility of increasing periodic fluctuations in the US stock market in the future is further increased. From the perspective of Hong Kong stock market, the three major Hong Kong stock indexes rose and fell differently this week. Hong Kong’s power industry fell significantly, and the [HK] power index fell 8.43% in a single week this week. The Hang Seng China enterprise index began to step into a phased bottom range, and the downward space in the future will change significantly compared with the past six months. It can be considered to absorb the ETF configuration related to Hang Seng China Enterprise Index in batches with the fluctuation in the future. In 2022, we can focus on the military industry and electrical equipment with high vision in Hong Kong stocks; In addition, with the gradual advancement of the bottom of the pig cycle, the pork industry after the callback can be considered; As well as with Tesla‘s callback, there has been a short-term phased callback of Hong Kong stock new energy vehicles. Considering that new energy vehicles are in a rapid development cycle at this stage, the phased batch low absorption opportunities of Hong Kong stock new energy vehicles can be considered after the callback. In addition, Hang Seng’s necessity is in the bottom range. Considering the large adjustment range in the early stage and the obvious global inflation at this stage, it is expected that Hang Seng’s essential consumer industry may have some phased opportunities in 2022.
US stock market performance in one week: the S & P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial index rose 0.85% and 1.08% respectively this week, and the NASDAQ index fell 0.05%.
Performance of Hong Kong stock market in one week: Hong Kong stock market fluctuated this week. Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China enterprise index and Hang Seng technology index rose by 0.75%, 0.42% and 0.92% respectively. In addition, the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese enterprises index fell this week, down 0.91%.
Important overseas economic data: in December 2021, the CPI of South Korea increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 2.74% year-on-year.
Risk tip: the Fed’s monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The intensification of global geopolitical risks; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
