1、 Overseas market: the market is gradually desensitized from the concerns of the mutant strain Omicron. The fifth wave of global epidemic spread more rapidly and affected a wider range than previous times. The number of confirmed cases in Europe and the United States increased sharply, and the peak of this round of epidemic in the United States, France, Britain and Italy was much higher than before. Although the epidemic is still spreading rapidly, the market is gradually desensitized from the concern of the mutant strain Omicron, and the crude oil price rebounded after the previous sharp decline in December. In terms of foreign exchange, the RMB exchange rate remained resilient, and foreign capital continued to flow into the A-share market. In December, BEIXIANG capital net bought 88.99 billion yuan of a shares, and in 2021, the net purchase was 432.17 billion yuan. The net purchase in that month and in the year reached a record high.
2、 The policy of "steady growth" was actively promoted, and the approaching of the "two sessions" boosted risk appetite. Taking history as a mirror, under the catalysis of many factors, A-Shares often deduce the structural market of "sending red envelopes" in the first quarter. In the spring of 2022, the market is still expected to perform, with steady growth configuration as the main melody. 1) From January to early March, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held one after another, and favorable policies will promote the expectation of steady growth and industrial reform; 2) The steady growth policy is expected to continue to be actively promoted, and traditional infrastructure will focus on development; 3) The real estate policy seeks "stability", and the central bank encourages real estate enterprises to merge and acquire, defuse industrial risks and realize liquidation; 4) High end manufacturing, hard technology and new energy industry chain are still the key support directions.
3、 At the end of the year, the issuance of public funds ushered in a small peak, and the trend of resident funds entering the market remained unchanged. At the end of 2021, the issuance of public funds ushered in a small peak. In December 2021, the scale of all newly established public funds reached 303.7 billion, the highest since January this year, higher than the average since 2019 (208.7 billion). Among them, equity + hybrid funds accounted for 41%, and the shares issued in December reached 123.7 billion, close to the average since 2019 (126.2 billion). The entry of residents' assets into the market through the fund is still a medium and long-term trend.
4、 In January, A-share investment proposal: "steady growth" became the main theme, with track differentiation and rebalancing. At the beginning of the year, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held one after another. Under the triple pressure of "shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation", the "steady growth" policy will be actively promoted. Traditional infrastructure, real estate and new infrastructure (new energy, high-end manufacturing and hard technology) are the three main focuses: the Ministry of Finance issued the new special debt limit in 2022 in advance, and infrastructure investment was carried out moderately in advance; The real estate policy seeks "stability", because the city implements policies + encourages real estate enterprises to merge and resolve industry risks; Structural adjustment and progress, new energy, hard science and technology are the key support directions. In January, due to the spread of sporadic epidemic in China (some regions or local Chinese New Year celebrations) and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the A-share industry may show differentiation, and the rapid rotation of plates has become the main feature. In January, the market is well balanced. Three main lines of allocation: 1. "Traditional infrastructure + real estate" under the background of "steady growth", such as building materials and real estate; 2) The main investment lines of "high-end manufacturing & hard technology": new energy (vehicle), military industry, electronics, etc; 3) Strong themes that benefit from the promotion of policies (support), such as meta universe (media), traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; Overseas Black Swan incident, etc.
