1. Macro environment and policy status
With the economic downturn in the second half of the year, the steady growth policy continued to increase. At the economic work conference before the end of the year, it was also mentioned that the fiscal policy will be put in front next year, and the market’s expectation of stabilizing economic growth has gradually increased; In terms of policy, the further easing of monetary policy has a limited role in boosting the economy. The strength and rhythm of policy support for “wide credit” is the road sign of the next economic trend. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to increase equity to high allocation, maintain the standard allocation of interest rate bonds, reduce high-rated credit bonds to standard allocation, reduce convertible bonds to standard allocation or high allocation, maintain low allocation of precious metals, industrial products, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , and maintain the standard allocation long RMB strategy. Suggested position: equity (68%) > bonds (20%) > commodities (10%) > cash (2%).
2. Views and suggestions on asset allocation
Quantitative view: at the plate level in December, the mid cycle, consumption, finance and other sectors performed well, while the growth and upstream sectors performed poorly. In terms of industry, construction materials, leisure services, media, light industry manufacturing and other industries performed well, and electrical equipment, nonferrous metals, automobile and other industries retreated greatly. Based on the two-beta model, we constructed the manufacturing activity index as a proxy variable to track the rotation between industries and plates. According to the latest data, Tianfeng manufacturing activity index decreased year-on-year, cash flow decreased and discount rate decreased. The model recommends that growth and consumption plates be configured in January.
View of equity market: 2021 is a typical “structural market”, with a small rise and fall in the index. The high boom sector has stepped out of the continuous and independent market. The sectors throughout the year are mainly the new energy sector and price rise cycle products with the main line of “carbon neutralization”, as well as the semi conductor sector dominated by “domestic substitution”. Looking forward to 2022, due to credit expansion and more abundant residual liquidity, the overall valuation of A-Shares will be supported; In the first half of the year, due to the decline of profits, the probability of the index fluctuated in the range. The current market adjustment will open space for the agitation in spring, and may be adjusted again in the second quarter; After the middle of the year, with the bottom of profits and the continued expansion of credit, there may be an overall upward opportunity for the index. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to pay attention to the “hard technology” track that continues the high prosperity, such as military industry, new energy vehicles, new energy bases, semiconductors, etc; And the dilemma reversal plate that does not depend on policy, such as mandatory food, pork, traditional cars and parts, etc.
View of bond market: since the RRR reduction in December, the market has mainly interpreted the market of “wide and moderate monetary policy, and wide credit and hard work have not been caught”. From the central economic work conference and the subsequent statements of various ministries, commissions and local governments, there is no doubt that the 22-year finance has made a good start. From the statement of the central bank’s regular monetary policy meeting in the fourth quarter, the possibility of interest rate reduction has further increased. It is expected that the macro performance in January will be a “three wide” pattern of “wide money, wide credit and wide finance”. From the perspective of capital, the static capital gap in January is about 1.8 trillion. However, at present, the residents’ demand for cash withdrawal is not high, the intensity of financial expenditure is rising, and under the RRR reduction in December, the liquidity probability remains reasonable and abundant. As long as the price instruments of the central bank are implemented, the interest rate curve will have downward space. However, after the expected interest rate cut is implemented, the central bank needs to return to prudence. In terms of allocation, it is expected that various assets in the subsequent debt base will remain stable, with credit bonds and interest rate bonds accounting for about 52% and 19% respectively, and other assets accounting for about 29%,
Nonferrous Metals view: the price of base metals recovered in December, the price of precious metals and rare earths remained volatile, and the price of lithium continued to hit a record high. In the follow-up, due to the stimulation of overseas infrastructure policies + the inertia of global recovery, new energy is also expected to bring emerging demand growth, and copper and zinc with strong economic sensitivity and electrolytic aluminum related to the post real estate cycle are expected to fluctuate at a high level; Precious metal prices may usher in a wave of rebound before the Fed’s interest rate hike falls; Considering the rigid supply of rare metals, the improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the recovery of wind power installed demand, the price center of light and heavy rare earth varieties is expected to rise; Lithium salt prices are expected to remain high under the background of continued good demand for new energy vehicles.
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) view: the actual soybean output in 21 / 22 is lower than expected, and it is expected that China’s soybean price will continue to operate at a high level, which will suppress the demand for soybean consumption and pressing, and the international soybean price may fluctuate; The centralized listing of corn in the main producing areas will increase the market supply, which will affect the subsequent price trend of corn; Cotton production and sales remained unchanged compared with November; The production and marketing of edible vegetable oil remained balanced as a whole, and the predicted values of consumption, trade and price range in 21 / 22 will not be adjusted in December; The price of live pigs decreased slightly. Near the peak consumption season of new year’s day and Spring Festival, the price of pork is supported, but the upstream and downstream game is significant. It is expected that the price of pigs will fluctuate in the short term.
Risk tips: the progress of economic repair is less than expected, the liquidity is tighter than expected, the spread of mutant strains is more than expected, overseas uncertain factors, etc.
