There is great downward pressure on the economy, and the state has taken measures to stabilize growth. China's GDP growth fell from 18.3% in the first quarter and 7.9% in the second quarter to 4.9% in the third quarter. There is great downward pressure on the economy. The national policy is "stable". The central economic work conference puts forward that "China's economic development faces the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply impact and weakening expectation", "economic work should be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability, all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced". With the strengthening of the steady growth policy, the economy may generally show the characteristics of low before high in 2022, and it is estimated that the GDP growth rate of 5% can be maintained throughout the year.
Industrial growth differentiation. In terms of external demand and domestic demand, the probability of reoccurrence of power and production restriction is small, and industrial production may have passed the low point. The investment growth rate may be relatively stable, the manufacturing investment will maintain a certain boom, the infrastructure investment is expected to pick up, and the margin of real estate investment will improve, but it may still be a drag. The impact of the epidemic may decline, income may rise, car core shortage will be alleviated, the downstream margin of real estate will improve, and consumption may continue to repair slowly. Exports may still be resilient, but there is great pressure for growth to fall. The overall growth rate of corporate profits is downward, but the structure may continue to improve.
Policies, prices and exchange rates. The fiscal power is in front, and the pulling effect on investment may be obvious. It is estimated that it can partially hedge the downward pressure on the economy in the first quarter. Financial support is estimated to be more active. The deficit ratio may not be less than 3.2% in 2022, and the amount of special debt may be more than 3.65 trillion yuan. It is estimated that CPI is moderately upward, PPI is significantly downward, and the scissors difference is gradually narrowed. Inflation does not restrict monetary policy. There is still room for loose monetary policy. The possibility of reducing reserve requirements or even interest rates in the first half of the year cannot be ruled out. From the perspective of inflation and economic growth, it is good for RMB appreciation, but the international status of the US dollar is still strong, and there is a great possibility of limited RMB appreciation.
American economy, price and monetary policy. It is estimated that the fiscal policy support of the United States in 2022 will be significantly lower than that in 2021, the growth rate of personal disposable income and corporate profits may be lower than that in 2021, and the growth rate of consumption may be affected to some extent. The wage level is rising, but the labor participation rate is still not high. It is unlikely that commodity prices will continue to rise. Inflation is expected to run at a relatively high level, but it is estimated that it will not be too high. If the economic growth rate in 2022 is lower than expected, the monetary contraction of the Federal Reserve may be lower than expected, and the number of interest rate increases after the end of taper may be less than market expectations.
Grasp the periodic and structural opportunities in the long-term slow bull. Maintain the judgment of the slow bull pattern of the A-share market since the beginning of 2019. In the first quarter, it is estimated that the national steady growth will be relatively strong, the overall liquidity environment may be loose, and the stock price drive will shift from the numerator end to the denominator end. You can pay attention to the phased opportunities before and after the Spring Festival and the opportunities of undervalued sectors such as securities companies. Double carbon development is a general international trend. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities after the valuation correction of green power sectors such as photovoltaic wind power and new energy vehicles, as well as the cyclical industries affected by the supply side. The decline of commodity prices is conducive to the increase of profits in the middle and lower reaches of the industry. The profit growth rate of the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry may be released in the second half of the year, so we can pay more attention to the profit improvement sector. Technology upgrading and import substitution continued to be promoted, and attention was paid to relevant sectors and stocks such as electronic communications. The export in 2022 may be less than that in 2021. China's demand dominated sectors with less international impact can be considered, such as national defense and military industry, food and beverage, medicine, etc.
