Strategic view
In terms of macro data, monetary easing and supply chain constraints, US inflation (core PCE) continued to rise in November, the highest level in 40 years, and 22q1 inflation remains the main problem in the United States; Price factors deeply affected consumer spending in November, and real consumption did not increase.
In terms of overseas policy, Fed officials continue to start hawkish expectation guidance. Daley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, also said that he would support raising interest rates two to three times next year; Federal Reserve governor Waller expressed his support for more active policy tightening.
Last week, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.28% and the Hang Seng technology index fell 1.08%. On December 20, the Central Bank of China lowered the one-year LPR interest rate by 5bp, slightly exceeding expectations from the time point of view, but the five-year LPR more related to residential housing loans has not been adjusted, and the policy interest rate has not been adjusted, indicating that the current LPR adjustment signal is more meaningful. It is expected that there will be policy space for the coordinated development of monetary policy and fiscal policy in the first quarter of next year. On December 24, the CSRC, together with the relevant departments of the State Council, issued the administrative provisions of the State Council on the overseas issuance and listing of securities by domestic enterprises (Draft for comments) and the administrative measures for the filing of overseas issuance and listing of domestic enterprises (Draft for comments), and publicly solicited opinions, pointing out that enterprises will go abroad for listing in accordance with the law, and the filing system will be fully implemented for overseas listing; The deadline for the feedback of the above draft is January 23, 2022. The follow-up schedule has not been defined yet, and the follow-up operation connection with the provisions of the network security review remains to be observed. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, China’s regulatory policy risks are gradually released, and the market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. In terms of a shares, the game of funds at the end of the year was strong, and the new energy sector with large increase in the early stage ushered in adjustment; In addition, we are concerned about the adverse impact of the recent epidemic in the mainland on the consumption of the upcoming Spring Festival.
Risk statement
The Fed continues to strengthen hawkish expectations; China’s regulatory policy risk release rhythm is less than expected.
