In 2021, the annual consumption is weak, and the structure is divided in three points
In November 2021, the cumulative compound of social zero was only 4% year-on-year, much lower than that before the epidemic (8% in 2019), and only higher than that in 2020 in history.
Three points of differentiation: above the limit is better than below the limit; Commodity consumption is better than catering consumption; Online consumption leads offline consumption. Two perturbations of commodity consumption
In the second half of 2021, the post real estate cycle consumption (furniture and building materials) decreased significantly. The compound growth rate of furniture reached a new level in the second half of the year; The growth rate of building materials fell sharply in July.
Automobile consumption has been in a high boom since Q3 in 2020, but it fluctuates greatly in 2021, with the overall growth rate declining, or disturbed by the "lack of core" at the production end.
One reason is that the epidemic suppresses consumption scenes
The epidemic constrains the consumption scene, which is the main reason for the low consumption.
Single month social zero basically showed a reverse change with the number of confirmed patients year-on-year.
The performance of catering and offline consumption in the sub items is particularly poor.
The second reason is that real estate has a two-tier impact on downstream demand
In the second half of 2021, the readings of all links of real estate decreased to a very low level in history, and the data of real estate investment and sales were almost the same as those during the financial crisis in 2008.
The post real estate cycle consumption (furniture and building materials) was directly impacted, and the growth rate reached a new level in the second half of the year.
The number of real estate related (real estate, construction, leasing, commercial services, finance, etc.) employees reaches one quarter of the number of Urban Non private units. The employment and income of relevant personnel have been impacted.
The third reason is that the growth rate of residents' income is weak
In 2021, the growth rate of residents' income is significantly slower than that of residents' expenditure and consumption.
Among all sub items, operating income is the largest drag on growth. The proportion of operating income in disposable income (15.7%) was significantly lower than that before the epidemic (16.4%).
Net operating income refers to the net income obtained from household production and operation activities, or reflects the weak recovery of production and operation of individual industrial and commercial households and flexible employees.
Fourth, the strength of consumption related policies is weak
Disturbed by the epidemic situation in 2020, the government issued a series of policies to stimulate consumption; Compared with 2020, the strength of commodity and service consumption policy in 2021 will be weakened.
First, the policy support related to the consumption of durable goods such as automobiles and household appliances is weak.
The introduction of policies in 2020 aims to boost consumer demand across the country. The policies are early, wide-ranging and strong, and the policy effects will be implemented within the year.
The 2021 policy aims to release the rural consumption potential, and the detailed rules are implemented at the end of the year. The policy was issued late and the scope is narrowed, so the policy effect is difficult to show in 2021.
Second, the strength of policies related to life service consumption is also weaker than that in 2020.
In 2020, the central government encourages local governments to boost service consumption by directly stimulating demand by issuing consumption vouchers.
The 2021 policy is more targeted at the supply side, holding that the government should first ensure the supply quality of life services, weakening the stimulation to the demand side, so that the direct boost effect of the 2021 service consumption policy on consumption is limited.
