Improved risk appetite in the international market; China’s food prices continue to fall.
1. Food prices continue to fall. The average wholesale price of pork of the Ministry of agriculture expanded to 47.86% year-on-year, and the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities decreased by 2.53% month on month. Although the wholesale price index of vegetables in Shandong rebounded 0.94% month on month, it was still weaker than the seasonality, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 15.73%. In the week of December 24, the food Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price index decreased by 0.7% month on month, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 12%.
2. Improved risk appetite in the international market. Although Johns More than 700000 new cases of covid-19 infection in the United States on December 30 released by Hopkins University, including more than 700000 new cases in New York State on the same day. However, the market has shown limited concern in the face of the dual threat of delta and Omicron strains. Countries such as the United States even try to shorten the isolation time of asymptomatic infected persons. New York Mayor Beth Howe also announced that the New Year celebration in Times Square will be carried out as planned. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 index in New York stock market both hit record highs.
International oil prices rose and fell. Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose 5.37% and 5.83% month on month respectively, but fell significantly after rising on Friday. The EIA report shows that in the week of December 24, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.576 million barrels, refined oil inventory decreased by 1.726 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.459 million barrels, and the inventory decline exceeded market expectations. Previously, IEA, OPEC and other organizations predicted that there might be oversupply of international crude oil in early 2022, but recently, the market began to worry about whether the actual crude oil production of OPEC + could meet its production increase target. HFI, an energy research institute, found that in recent months, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have mainly supported the growth of OPEC + crude oil exports, while the actual export growth of other countries is slow or continues to support oil prices.
Base metals mainly rose. Affected by the soaring gas and electricity prices in Europe, the market’s concerns about the capacity of non-ferrous metals in Europe supported most of the rise in the price of base metals. LME copper and aluminum rose 1.46% and 2.16% month on month respectively, and LME copper and gold rose 1.14% month on month. However, European gas prices have corrected. Russian President Vladimir Putin said recently that the “Beixi 2” natural gas pipeline is ready. As long as it is approved by Europe, Russia can increase natural gas exports.
China’s cement price index fell 1.61% month on month; The comprehensive steel price index fell by 1.29% month on month, China’s iron ore price index fell by 3.38% month on month, and the blast furnace operating rate fell by 0.9% month on month in the week of December 24; The operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of more than 2 million tons increased by 0.66% month on month.
3. The decline of the property market has converged. On December 26, the total price of land traded in 100 large and medium-sized cities rose 337.46% month on month, and the premium rate of land traded rose 138.85% month on month. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 34.62% month on month, and the transaction area of first, second and third tier cities increased by 12.53%, 63.12% and 6.92% month on month respectively. Throughout December, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was only 15.82 million square meters, still the second lowest point on record, about 20.6% lower than the average value in the same period of the previous 11 years. Among them, the turnover in the first half of the month (January 15) is about 30% lower than the average value in the same period of the previous 11 years; However, the turnover in the second half of the month (16-31) was only about 13% lower than the average in the same period of the previous 11 years, and the sales decline converged.
Risk tips: the real economy outside China has changed beyond expectations, inflation has risen beyond expectations, and overseas epidemic prevention and control has exceeded expectations.
