abstract
2022 is the year when the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is successfully held. Steady growth has become the focus and primary task of the policy. Both fiscal and monetary easing, fiscal front force, RRR and interest rate cuts can be expected. Expanding investment and domestic demand has become the primary policy focus, and infrastructure and finance take over the economic momentum. Real estate policy correction, the wind is warm. The construction of affordable housing will bring new increment and provide financial support for the healthy development of high-quality real estate enterprises and the reasonable housing needs of residents. Steady growth is stronger than expected, the charge has sounded, and various measures are expected to speed up the implementation.
In 2022, the macro economy will rotate from "micro recession" to "micro recovery", and the growth target may be 5% - 5.5%. There is great downward pressure on the economy in the first half of the year, but it is also a time when the steady growth policy is concentrated. The counter cyclical adjustment of fiscal policy is expected to play a role in stabilizing growth, and the construction of new infrastructure, old infrastructure and affordable housing is expected to rush into the decline of exports and real estate. Infrastructure investment rebounded strongly, manufacturing investment was relatively optimistic, and real estate investment stabilized and warmed up. PPI pressure eased, kept falling year-on-year, and turned to negative growth at the end of the year; CPI is slightly higher than this year, within 2% of the whole year.
In 2022, the global economy will slow down significantly, and the IMF forecast value is 4.9%. The European and American economies may peak and enter a downward period in the first half of the year. Inflation in developed economies will peak and fall in the first quarter, and the fluctuation rhythm of inflation in emerging markets is similar. U.S. economic growth has declined, from high to low, and inflationary pressure has weakened. The long-term nominal interest rate of US bonds will move downward, the yield curve will flatten, the recession is expected to heat up, and the real interest rate will flatten or rise slightly. The US dollar index is expected to shift its focus upward and strengthen relatively.
In 2022, China's macro economy will transition from "stable currency + tight credit" to "wide currency + wide credit", and the corresponding investment clock will change from "micro recession" to "micro recovery". Asset pricing logic is conducive to A-Shares and bonds, and China's priced bulk industrial products related to infrastructure will also benefit periodically. A shares: the probability of going out of the market at the beginning of the year and the end of the year is high, and the internal structure is still the market. Bonds: the probability of upward opportunities in the first half of the year is high, and the overall lack of trend market drive. Commodities: weakening global demand suppresses industrial prices. However, China's steady growth policy will exert force, and China's priced bulk industrial products related to infrastructure will also benefit periodically. It is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic. Gold: the real interest rate of US bonds is flat or slightly higher, superimposed with the upward shift of the focus of the US dollar index, and the pricing logic is not conducive to the performance of gold.
