The economic impact of the epidemic weakened, and inflation promoted the shift of monetary policy. In December, with the rapid spread of Omicron virus, the global epidemic situation appeared again and again. During this round of epidemic, some countries and regions have re strengthened the blockade measures, but the impact on the economy is generally mild. The intensification of overseas inflation has promoted the shift of monetary policy. In November, the US CPI and core CPI reached 6.8% and 4.9% respectively, both of which were the highest in 30 years. The CPI of the eurozone and the UK also reached 4.9% and 5.1% respectively. Under greater inflationary pressure, the shift of monetary policy authorities in major developed countries began to accelerate at the end of 2021. US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell abandoned the "temporary theory of inflation" in November and accelerated the reduction of bond purchase plan at the interest rate meeting in December; At the monetary policy meeting in December, the European Central Bank also announced that it would end the emergency anti epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) in March 2022. At that time, the bond purchase speed of the European Central Bank will decrease significantly. Although the Fed has repeatedly stressed to the market that the conditions for reducing bond purchases and raising interest rates are different, the dot matrix and market expectations show that the pace of the Fed's interest rate increase is expected to accelerate in 2022. In 2022, inflation forced the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to accelerate the shift to austerity, and the possibility of changes in the macro liquidity environment behind asset prices increased.
The "entanglement" of A-Shares continues, and the value of Hong Kong shares is prominent; Short term standard bonds and reduce positions in the medium term. In December, the stock markets in developed countries were strong, and the main stock indexes in the United States and Europe generally rose near 5%, significantly outperforming emerging markets. A-share index outperformed gem and sci tech innovation board in December. The "tangle" of style is still continuing, and no plate in the market has gone out of the overall upward market. In December, the media industry rebounded, with a leading increase; The other industries with higher growth were mainly the "Pro cyclical" sector that benefited from the expected strength of financial infrastructure, the consumer sector was repaired steadily, and the power equipment, new energy and other sectors experienced a round of obvious adjustment in the middle and late days. In 2022, China's debt is expected to continue in a volatile pattern, and there will be callback pressure behind the implementation of wide credit and economic stabilization in the medium and short term; US Treasuries are expected to fluctuate upward throughout the year, and the upward pressure in the second quarter before the interest rate increase node is more obvious. Compared with domestic equity assets, the performance price ratio of US bonds has been in a neutral position in the near future.
In December, the overall performance of major global assets was that stocks were stronger than bonds, and commodities were sharply differentiated. The acceleration of monetary policy has a direct impact on the expectations of the bond market, but it is still some days before the start of austerity, which has little short-term impact on the stock market. Stocks in the world, especially developed countries, generally perform better than bonds. In China, on the contrary, the bond market rose significantly and the stock market performed mediocrely. Commodities, especially energy and chemical varieties, are sharply differentiated, and the top of the list are energy and chemical commodities. This month, we recommend medium and high allocation equity, standard allocation bonds and medium and low allocation commodities. With China's wide credit landing, economic stabilization and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike approaching in the next quarter or two, China's bonds and US bonds are facing potential adjustment risks. It is suggested to gradually reduce the bond asset position in the medium term and correspondingly increase the allocation proportion of Hong Kong stocks and a shares.
Risk tips: (1) inflation is higher than expected, and the global central bank's monetary policy is forced to accelerate the shift; (2) The epidemic situation is repeated, the vaccine effectiveness is reduced, and the recovery progress of the epidemic situation is delayed.
