research conclusion
After the central economic work conference, all local departments are holding intensive meetings to deploy work related to steady growth in 2022, which we have combed. From the information disclosed therein, the key to steady growth can be briefly summarized as follows:
Monetary policy: (1) reserve requirement reduction and interest rate reduction that have been implemented at the end of 2021: looking forward to the follow-up, the market still has certain expectations for the downward trend of the five-year LPR, but considering the interval between the two operations, we think it is less likely to be implemented at the beginning of 2022; (2) Financial support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households: the transformation of two direct tools (converting the loan extension support tool for Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprises into the loan support tool for Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprises, and integrating the credit loan support plan for Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprises into the re loan management of supporting agriculture and small and medium-sized enterprises) is the key work of the central bank in 2022; (3) Steadily implement the prudent management system of real estate finance: better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry; In addition, the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises has been issued, requiring banking financial institutions to carry out M & a loan business of real estate projects in a stable and orderly manner, focusing on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises in M & A and high-quality projects of large real estate enterprises in danger and difficulties, It means that the banking system will play an important role in real estate risk disposal; (4) Green Finance: including guiding and leveraging more funds to enter the field of carbon emission reduction, strengthening information disclosure, carrying out carbon accounting of financial institutions, steadily promoting climate risk stress test, etc.
Fiscal policy: (1) all-round “ahead”: including issuing part of the special bond quota in 2022 in advance, moderately carrying out infrastructure investment in advance, and issuing funds and arranging projects in advance; (2) It has identified a number of investment priorities in line with the direction of high-quality development, such as water conservancy, transportation, ecological environmental protection, agriculture and rural areas, municipal and new infrastructure construction; (3) Greater efforts to reduce taxes and fees: the focus is on the manufacturing industry. In addition, the continued implementation of preferential policies for individual income tax has been introduced.
Industrial policy: (1) the “strategic outline for expanding domestic demand” will be issued soon, which is expected to involve key areas of investment and consumption; (2) Guide investment in green fields: develop green manufacturing, carry out demonstration and application of green low-carbon technologies and products, and complete the top-level design of carbon peak in key industries in the industrial field in 2022; (3) Promote consumption, especially the consumption of new energy vehicles, green smart appliances and green building materials; (4) Digital industry development and new infrastructure: such as increasing the coverage of gigabit optical network; (5) Upgrading of manufacturing industry: carry out special actions for the development of advanced manufacturing industry clusters and expand the number and scope of “specialized, special and new” enterprises; (6) Transform and upgrade traditional industries: implement the digital transformation action of manufacturing industry, guide and support industries such as industrial machine tools, ships, medical equipment and agricultural machinery equipment to accelerate the application of digital, green and high-end advanced applicable technologies.
Although a series of policies for steady growth have been implemented continuously, they are not completely unconstrained. Recently, there have been several signals indicating that fiscal discipline has not been relaxed, including: (1) the national fiscal video conference proposed to strictly enforce financial discipline and straighten out financial order, and to be seriously accountable for false debt and new implicit debt; (2) Hegang implemented financial restructuring, stopped grass-roots recruitment, adjusted budget and revitalized special funds, which was the first prefecture level city (formerly district / county) for financial restructuring. According to the local government debt risk emergency response plan, this means that its explicit debt interest payment expenditure accounts for more than 10%; (3) Following the launch of the pilot project of no hidden debt in Guangdong and Shanghai, the work of clearing hidden debt at the prefecture level and city level is also under way. Hanzhong recently set up a special class for the pilot work of clearing hidden debt; (4) It is not uncommon for the real estate to adjust the “policy for the city”, but for example, what changes have taken place in the “policy for the city” recently According to the analysis, it is generally not the first and second tier cities.
There is no contradiction between the continuous release of the steady growth policy and the relaxation of fiscal discipline – although the direction of steady growth in 2022 has been fully confirmed, the policy window is only the “front door” and will not reopen the “back door” due to the improvement of the demand for steady growth. We believe that the deficit and special debt will be relatively higher than expected in 2022, However, the combination of implicit debt and fiscal discipline is still too strict.
Risk statement
Clearing the hidden debt will put pressure on local finance and affect the launch rhythm of steady growth policy;
Under the background of downward economic growth, the confidence repair of private, small and micro enterprises was less than expected.
