The improvement of PMI data in December 2021 is mainly related to the active replenishment of inventories by enterprises under the background of steady growth. Although the relaxation of credit conditions promotes the recovery of commercial housing sales, the bottom recovery of real estate construction and investment may still need to wait, which means that it will take time for macroeconomic stabilization and reversal.
At present, the downward pricing of bond market yield has the information of loose monetary policy and weakening economic momentum. Under the background of policy shift to steady growth, bond market yield may turn into shock.
Recently, the economic fundamentals and liquidity environment have not deteriorated substantially. The substantial adjustment of the gem reflects the rebalancing process of investors at the level of industry prosperity and valuation. In the first quarter, with the easing of monetary policy, the advance of fiscal force and the improvement of economic expectations, the risk of continuous decline in the equity market was low.
Risk tips: (1) the epidemic development exceeded expectations; (2) Geopolitical risk
