Macroeconomic
In February, PPI rebounded month on month and CPI rose month on month. Affected by the Spring Festival and geopolitical risks, CPI rose slightly month on month in February, and the year-on-year growth rate was the same as that of the previous month; In February, the year-on-year increase of PPI decreased, but the decline narrowed, the month on month ratio changed from decline to rise, the ppi-cpi scissors gap further narrowed, and the overall inflation level was controllable.
In February, the financial data weakened, and the credit extension was further strengthened. It is expected to heat up. Affected by seasonal factors, the uncertainty of the epidemic situation and the continuous bottom building of the real estate industry, the financial data weakened in February, the growth rate of social finance ended the continuous upward trend, and loans and off balance sheet bills became the main drag items; Affected by the small increase of medium and long-term loans at the residential end, the year-on-year growth rate of credit continued to decline; In the case of weak financial data in February, the expectation of loose monetary policy in the short term is rising.
The CPI of the United States continued to reach a new high in February, and the upward pressure on inflation remains. The outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the continuous increase of European and American sanctions against Russia, and the continuous rise of us energy and food prices, pushed the US CPI to a 40 year high in February.
The US bond interest rate curve faces upside down risk, and the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma. This week, due to geopolitical disturbance and the continuous rise of US inflation, the US bond interest rate spread continued to narrow, and the interest rate curve faced the risk of upside down. Looking back on history, the upside down of the US bond interest rate curve often indicates the US economic recession and stock market adjustment, but the relationship between the upside down and the time of the crisis is highly uncertain. The Fed is determined to raise interest rates, but it faces the risk of upside down of the interest rate curve, and the pace of monetary tightening will also be cautious. The first interest rate increase may be 25bp, and then it will be adjusted according to the inflation situation.
Policy focus
The registration system has entered the full implementation period, and the expansion of the stock market is good for the securities industry as a whole. Tax cuts and fees are expected to reach 2.5 trillion yuan in 2022, an increase of 127.27% over last year. The balance profits handed over by the central bank totaled more than 1 trillion yuan, accurately reaching the real economy.
General asset market
In the stock market, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were adjusted deeply, US stocks fluctuated downward, and risks were gradually released; In terms of currency, reverse repo maintains stability and market volatility narrows; In the bond market, US bond yields rebounded across the board, and China bond yields also continued to rise; In the foreign exchange market, US inflation continued to be high, the US dollar fluctuated and strengthened, and the RMB rose slightly; In the commodity market, LME nickel soared, the market stopped urgently, and the oil price fell after rising in the short term; In the real estate market, the marginal relaxation of the property market policy in many places has obvious signals to maintain stability.
Risk tips
The economy accelerated downward; The policy is not as expected; Repeated outbreaks
