Food and beverage: consumer demand recovers during the Spring Festival, focusing on leading companies that are in a high boom track and underestimate the safety margin of value. From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, higher than market expectations and a month on month increase (a year-on-year increase of 1.7% in December), reflecting the recovery of consumer demand in the Spring Festival, and the first quarter report is expected to perform well. Despite the pressure on the consumption format under the spread of the epidemic, the catering revenue from January to February increased by 8.9% year-on-year, an increase of 6.4% compared with 19 years, which was mainly affected by the recovery of catering during the Spring Festival and the low base of advocating local Chinese New Year in 21 years. However, since March, the epidemic has been repeated everywhere, and the first tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen have also been occupied one after another, which has once again had an impact on the retail and catering scene. The catering demand may be under pressure again, and they are more optimistic about the performance of the required categories. Affected by the Russian Ukrainian war, the reduction of production in South America, the global epidemic and other factors, the cost of food and beverage raw materials is still at an all-time high, and there is still an upward trend in the short term, putting pressure on the profits of the industry. At present, the food and beverage sector has experienced a large correction, and the valuation has dropped to a reasonable range. Under the macro stagflation expectation, we suggest paying attention to the leading companies in the high boom track and the safety margin of undervalued value, recommending Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) .
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fishery: feed prices are running at a high level, and companies in land seed related fields are concerned. In terms of feed price, the high feed price in 2022 raised the downstream breeding cost and exacerbated the cash flow pressure of farmers. In terms of pig breeding, since the beginning of 2021, the pig price has fallen greatly. The industry has continued to de convert its production capacity since June. At present, it is still in a state of deep loss. Under the pressure of cost, it is expected to accelerate the de conversion of production capacity. Looking forward to the future, we expect that the pig supply is still in the release period, the pig price will continue to be under pressure, and the industry is expected to usher in an inflection point from the second half of 2022 to 2023. At the investment level, we recommend land and seed related companies, and suggest paying attention to Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , and the leader of pig breeding Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) .
Risk tips:
Macroeconomic environment risk: the prosperity of the consumer industry is greatly affected by the macro economy. Be vigilant against changes in the macro environment to drive fluctuations in the prosperity of the consumer industry.
Epidemic risk: the repeated epidemic has an impact on the consumption scene and affects the prosperity of the industry.
Risk of intensified competition in the industry: the competition in the consumer goods industry is relatively incentive. Intensified competition in the industry may lead to problems such as price war and channel profit compression, and affect the prosperity of the industry.
Risk of policy factors: policy changes have a great impact on the industry as a whole, such as consumption tax reform, import and export tariff policy, etc.
