Key investment points:
Recently, the market has paid more attention to the capital flow of going north. What is the current situation of the capital position of going north, what is the recent capital flow of going north by industry, and how to look at the influencing factors and subsequent deduction?
Position status of northbound capital
From the perspective of the proportion of the overall scale of northbound funds, it currently accounts for about 2% - 3% of the total market value of a shares. According to the latest (March 14) position data of land stock connect, the overall holding value of A-Shares of northbound capital is about 2.15 trillion, accounting for about 2.44% of the total market value of A-Shares (88 trillion).
By industry, the industries in which northbound capital holds a high proportion of the total market value are household appliances (8.01%), food and beverage (4.93%), power equipment (4.87%), building materials (3.92%) and commercial retail (3.19%); The industries with higher absolute amount of capital holdings in Beishang are power equipment (347492 billion yuan), food and beverage (290769 billion yuan), medicine and Biology (188194 billion yuan), banking (177247 billion yuan) and electronics (144406 billion yuan).
The top 20 companies with the highest amount of money held by the top 20 companies that have the highest share of the top 20 companies with the highest amount of money held from the north up the North: the top 20 companies with the highest amount of money held by the top 20 companies are respectively, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) .
Recent capital flows northward
Since the beginning of the year, as of March 14, the cumulative net outflow of funds from northbound has been 43.8 billion yuan. In terms of industries, the industries with the largest net capital inflow from northbound are banks (+ 18 billion), non-ferrous metals (+ 12.1 billion), utilities (+ 5 billion), power equipment (+ 3.7 billion) and transportation (+ 2.6 billion); The industries with the largest net outflow of funds from northbound are food and beverage (- 16 billion), medicine and Biology (- 15 billion), computer (- 8.1 billion), household appliances (- 7.4 billion) and automobile (- 6.7 billion).
The substantial outflow of funds from the north is mainly concentrated since March 7. From March 7 to March 14, the industries with large net outflow of funds from northbound include food and beverage, power equipment, medicine and biology, banking, non bank finance, electronics and household appliances. At the same time, the industries with net inflow against the trend include national defense equipment, public utilities, building decoration, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, coal and communication.
Reasons for the fluctuation of funds going north
We believe that the recent outflow of funds from the North may be due to the macro background of the Fed's potential interest rate increase and the defensive mentality of funds under geographical conflicts. In the short term, there may still be potential fluctuations in northbound funds, but in the medium and long term, combined with the positive background of China's economy, we believe that the inflow of northbound funds into A-Shares is still the general trend.
Risk tip: the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is further revealed; Global inflation rose faster than expected; The Fed raised interest rates more than expected.
