Key points
Event: on March 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the economic data from January to February: the production growth rate was 7.5%, and the market expectation was 3.2%; The growth rate of fixed investment is 12.2%, and the market is expected to be 5.3%; Social zero growth rate was 6.7%, and the market expected 4.6%.
Core view:
From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed investment, social zero and production increased significantly, higher than market expectations. The economic data greatly exceeded expectations, on the one hand, because the base was low at the beginning of last year, on the other hand, the month on month growth rate of real estate investment and infrastructure investment was better than that in the same period in history, and social zero was not disturbed by the epidemic around the Spring Festival. However, it should also be noted that the month on month performance of manufacturing investment is lower than that of seasonality, the unemployment rate has increased, and the foundation of economic recovery is still unstable. Next, it is expected that the steady growth policy will continue to make efforts and continue to consolidate the confidence of market players.
Fixed investment: the ring ratio is slightly more than seasonal, mainly driven by real estate and infrastructure. From January to February, the month on month growth rate of fixed investment (not seasonally adjusted, the same below) – 29%, slightly higher than that in the same period in history. Among them, infrastructure investment rebounded as scheduled and real estate investment became positive beyond expectations, which is the main factor driving the growth rate of fixed investment to exceed expectations.
Infrastructure: rebounded sharply as scheduled and is expected to continue to rebound in the first half of the year.
From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of generalized infrastructure reached 8.6%, rebounding as scheduled. From the month on month perspective, the month on month growth rate of generalized infrastructure from January to February was – 37%, 0.1 percentage points higher than that in the same period in history.
It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure construction in the first quarter is expected to continue to rebound, and the year-on-year growth rate in the first half of the year may reach 10%. The logic of infrastructure has undergone significant changes. Under the triple pressure of the economy, the importance of infrastructure investment in countercyclical hedging has rebounded again. In terms of funds, the available funds for special bonds this year reached 4.85 trillion; In terms of project approval, on January 10, the national Standing Committee promoted the implementation of major projects as soon as possible from the aspects of simplifying follow-up and project approval. The two sessions relaxed the energy consumption constraints on major projects and accelerated the implementation of physical workload. We expect the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure construction to be about 6.6%. Considering the policy advance, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of the year may reach 10%.
Manufacturing industry: the epidemic situation is disturbed, the recovery is weaker than seasonal, and the performance of electrical machinery is relatively bright.
The year-on-year growth rate of the manufacturing industry has increased significantly, which is mainly affected by the base factor, and the month on month performance is lower than that of seasonality. From January to February, manufacturing investment grew by 20.9% year-on-year, mainly affected by the low base. On a month on month basis, the growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to February was – 46.5%, lower than – 35% in the same period in history. In terms of subdivided industries, only the month on month growth rate of electrical machinery, textile and metal products is higher than that in the same period in history, and the performance of electrical machinery is the most brilliant. The month on month growth rate is 7 percentage points higher than that in the same period in history, and the performance of other subdivided industries is lower than that in the same period in history.
Real estate: Sales and new construction continued to fall, and the “implementation of policies for the city” continued to advance.
Before and after the Spring Festival, we will promote policy adjustments in terms of sales restrictions and down payment ratio in many places. However, impacted by the decline in residents’ confidence, the indicators of national real estate sales, new construction, completion and funds in place continued to fall from January to February. The government work report stressed that “the implementation of the city strategy” and “meet the reasonable housing needs”, the current trend of the rapid rise of housing prices has been curbed, and the real estate bubble financial trend has been fundamentally reversed.
Consumption: the month on month is flat and seasonal, and the disturbance of the epidemic has not brought a great impact.
In the early stage, the market was mainly worried about the spread of the Spring Festival epidemic, which would cause great disturbance to social zero. However, there was no significant decline in the month on month (MOM) data of social zero. From January to February, the mom growth rate of social zero was 81%, which was the same as that of the same period in history, which means that the epidemic spread more around the Spring Festival and did not have an impact on social zero. In terms of the performance of subdivided industries, optional consumer goods performed best, and the chain performance of gold and silver jewelry, communication equipment and beverages were significantly higher than that of the same period in history by more than 20 percentage points.
Risk tip: the global epidemic is repeated.
