Matters:
The economic growth data from January to February 2022 came out under the expectation of the market, and all the main economic indicators improved more than expected year-on-year.
Ping An View:
How to accurately analyze the economic data from January to February 2022. Our study found that although the base impact faced in the first quarter of 2022 is not as large as that in 2021, due to the impact of "local Chinese New Year" on the economy in the first quarter of 2021, there has been structural growth differentiation. Therefore, the main economic indicators in the first quarter of 2022 still face different degrees of base impact. To accurately analyze the economic picture behind the statistical data from January to February, we need to compare it in combination with the month on month growth rate in recent years. However, the year-on-year data (overestimation caused by low base) and the three-year average growth rate (underestimate caused by low growth in early 2020) are not accurate enough.
The real economic picture reflected by the statistical data from January to February 2022. By comparing the month on month comparison of various economic indicators from January to February 2015, we find that: 1) the industrial added value grew strongly from January to February 2022, but the production and sales rate index was poor, which questioned the sustainability of the strong growth of industrial production. 2) In the fixed asset investment, the improvement of real estate investment is the most considerable. Unfortunately, its improvement mainly depends on the land purchase fee, while the construction and installation investment is still weak. 3) Infrastructure and manufacturing investment is not as "off to a good start" as the year-on-year data. In particular, manufacturing investment is more supported by the base factor, and the support of the base factor will be significantly weakened in March, which may face downward pressure on infrastructure and manufacturing investment year-on-year. 4) Consumption data are also supported by the low base. At present, the month on month of commodity consumption has basically returned to the pre epidemic level, but the repair of catering consumption still has a long way to go. 5) The employment situation is generally stable, but the employment of the population aged 16-24 is significantly under pressure.
Generally speaking, the economic data from January to February is not as beautiful as the year-on-year degree shows, and the picture presented in combination with the month on month analysis is basically in line with expectations. At present, the downward pressure on China's economy is still large, and the unstable factors faced by strong indicators such as industry and export are increasing. The improvement of real estate investment is mainly due to the lag of land purchase fees, which has poor sustainability. The tightening of China's epidemic situation further restricts the recovery of consumption. The recent deployment of the division of key tasks in the government work report from the two sessions of the National People's Congress and the national Standing Committee has put forward higher requirements for steady growth. With the vigorous implementation of fiscal policies and the implementation of urban policies and marginal adjustments of real estate regulatory policies, we believe that China's economy has entered the "bottom building" stage. The monetary policy is constrained by the rise of structural inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. It is temporarily in the observation period. The short-term macro policy will focus on the development of structural monetary policy tools and fiscal policy.
